On 6 July 2017, CAPT Zerr of SOCOM attended a CDD lab meeting to discuss our work on CDD and Gray zone conflict.
UCSD team presented work on cross-domain deterrence and on gray zone conflict.
CAPT Zerr has been briefed on our project from its inception and continues to engage and ask informed questions on CDD strategies.
CAPT Zer continues to show interest in our research and has and has forwarded his impressions to his replacement at SOCOM and our slides to other CYBERCOM subject matter experts so they can provide feedback to our working papers.
On 26-27 July 2017, Erik Gartzke and Michael Nacht were featured speakers at the U.S. Strategic Command’s Deterrence and Assurance Conference in Omaha, NE.
Erik spoke on the effects of redline versus ambiguous deterrent thresholds, relating them to cross-domain deterrence.
Domains and military capabilities/platforms differ in their ability to signal (warn), fight (win) and minimize costs. These varying attributes of platforms and domains mean that the “ingredients” in conducting deterrence change its nature and likely effects.
Erik spoke with many strategic deterrence practitioners and experts, fulfilling the requirement under Minerva funding of outreach to the military and civilian defense community. He received the STRATCOM Commander’s challenge coin from General Hyten.
Erik and Michael created contacts with representatives of STRATCOM who are interested in having a briefing on some of the project’s current research later this fall or early spring.
Erik and Michael met with personnel from other agencies such as the NSA and DARPA. They also met with leading academic deterrence experts including Adam Stulberg (Georgia Tech) and Matt Kroenig (Georgetown).
Erik and Michael took the opportunity to review their respective research efforts and other progress on the grant and to discuss plans or the final year of the project.
On 1-2 July 2017, Erik Gartzke participated in the Pacific International Politics Conference: Erik Gartzke (co-organizer of PIPc) presented research on the role of nuclear force structures in prompting deterrence or generating instability. Using new data coded by the author and others, we find that platform diversification is a significant determinant of deterrence success. The ratio of nuclear warheads to platforms is also significant for conventional dispute initiation. A high ratio of warheads to platforms (as is the case with MIRVed warheads) is associated with increased conventional dispute initiation. The meeting brought together cutting edge researchers from around the Pacific rim with a focus on security and conflict studies. This group is an important resource and benefit to U.S. allies in the region. By promoting their work and interaction, we strengthen the knowledge base available to advise and inform leaders and officials in allied countries. Given the security concerns of these countries, and the close ties between government and academia in Asian nations, the meeting enriches U.S. efforts to mobilize elite and public opinion concerning national security, informs the decision making process governing defense, and improves the quality of interaction among allied nations.
On 5 July 2017, Members of the CDD team met with Christopher Costello, AbD. Mr. Costello is a reserve naval officer and PhD history student at UCSD.
Christopher is working with the CDD team to try and uncover detailed data on the location of naval platforms as a way of measuring the effects of power projection, a component of the deterrent effect of military power.
On 6 July 2017, Dani Nedal (Georgetown) presented his work on geography and nuclear deterrence at the CDD lab meeting.
Nedal is an AbD researcher currently on a postdoc at Yale University. He is an expert on political geography. Members of the CDD group built on their understanding of political geography and asked numerous questions.
On 24 July 2017, Erik Gartzke met with Bethany Goldblum, director of the Public Policy and Nuclear Threat program.
Erik updated Bethany on our activities and discussed the evolution of research generally on new nuclear security issues. Bethany would like to review research from the CDD project and provide feedback on the team’s research.
Jon Lindsay was informed by the OUP that the Cross-domain deterrence edited Volume has received a positive review and is awaiting further feedback
Erik Gartzke attended Academic Exchange on 3-5 June 2017.
The AE meeting brought together the foremost experts on Middle Eastern security policy to discuss the current state of conditions in Israel and the Region. Given important differences between Israeli and U.S. notions of deterrence, the meeting was very informative.
With a more kinetic and dynamic conception of deterrence, Israeli policy makers conduct operations designed to operate across domains with considerable regularity.
Dr. Gartzke met with more than two dozen experts on Middle East security policy and strategy to better understand how deterrence operates in the region.
On 20-22 June 2017, Erik Gartzke was a featured speaker at Cyber Endeavor, the largest government sponsored meeting of cyber security practitioners and experts, at Carnegie Mellon University.
Dr. Gartzke talked about the role of cross-domain deterrence in cyber security. He also discussed the underpinnings of cyber conflict and reviewed available analytical work on the causes of cyberwar.
During the meeting, he met with groups and representatives of a number of government agencies and offices, including the NSA, CYBERCOM, NDU and NPS. Erik Gartzke met with Bob Vince of LLNL to start the security clearance process.
On 23-24 June 2017, Erik Gartzke met with collaborator Koji Kagotani to discuss and work on research related to extended conventional deterrence.
This research uses statistical data to show the effect of different aspects of deterrence. We find that the proportion of forces placed on an ally’s soil is the only significant predictor of deterrence success. The absolute quantity of forces in not significant. The proportion of forces placed offshore actually correlates with deterrence failure. This is because these forces increase uncertainty about the defender’s (US) intent. Rather than just shifting the local balance of power, and increasing discretion, they also increase variability, leading adversaries more often to underestimate US resolve. We are preparing this work for submission to major journals.
On 25 June 2017, Erik Gartzke met with Atsushi Tago, a major expert on Japanese public opinion regarding foreign military policy to discuss deterrence and other issues.
On 26 June 2017, Erik Gartzke gave a talk at Kobe University concerning the role of naval power in influence and deterrence.
Dr. Gartzke met with students and others concerning this work and received feedback from a Japanese perspective on the impact of current security concerns and the US-Japan alliance.
On 30 June 2017, Erik Gartzke attended the East Asian Security Workshop.
Erik Gartzke presented the research on conventional deterrence and received feedback from expert scholars
On 14-17 June 2017, Andres Gannon attended the 2017 Political Networks Conference and Workshop at Ohio State University.
Andres presented “An Empirical Approach to Defining Military Domains" which looks at world military technologies and how they explain variation in national military capacity. Presentation was award Honorable Mention for the poster session of the conference.
This conference gave an opportunity for our research to get valuable feedback from academic experts and to partake in workshops to improve technical training on skills needed to continue the project. Workshops included sessions with academic experts on network analysis and exponential random graph models which will be used in future iterations of the project.
On 21-22 June 2017, Andres Gannon attended the CSIS PONI Conference in Livermore, CA.
Andres Presented "Cross-Domain Threats and the Escalation of International Crises in East Asia."
Introduced our work to policymakers who oversee US nuclear policy.
Andres received tours of US nuclear facilities at the Lawrence Livermore Nuclear Laboratory which provided technical knowledge that will assist future research.
On 7 June 2017, Andres Gannon presented a paper on Cruise missiles entitled "Cruisin’ to Victory: The Effects of US Cruise Missile Strikes Since the Gulf War."
This paper introduces new, fine-grained data about US cruise missile usage since the Gulf War to analyze its effect on the duration and outcome of conflict, relationship to other military instruments used during conflict, and variation in how cruise missiles are operationalized at the theater level.
Data collection has been done for 11 of 14 US military operations since 1991.
On 15 May 2017, Erik Gartzke, Shannon Carcelli, J. Andres Gannon, and Jiakun Jack Zhang received positive feedback from their chapter entitled “Signaling in Foreign Policy” for the edited volume by Cameron Thies, ed. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Forthcoming.
The reviews were exceedingly positive, and there was no need for revisions.
Comments from a reviewer “provides one of the best reviews and synthetic discussions of the signaling literature that I have seen. The authors should be commended for putting together such an authoritative and clear overview and distillation of both foundational research on signaling as well as the latest approaches and advances in this vein.”
On 17 May 2017, Erik Gartzke was contacted by Michael Powell, of STRATCOM and invited to the Strategic Deterrence Symposium.
On 26 July 2017, Erik will serve as a panelist on the Examining the implications of seemingly conflicting approaches across all domains-thresholds & redlines vs. ambiguity?” panel.
On 12 May 2017, Erik Gartzke and Matthew Kroenig Revise and resubmitted "Social Scientific Analysis of Nuclear Weapons: Past Successes, Contemporary Challenges, and Future Opportunities" to the Journal of Conflict Resolution (forthcoming).
Scholars interested in researching nuclear security are increasingly discouraged by a fear that the “important questions” have already been answered and by recent studies which delineate serious limits to casual inference in this field. While recognizing these challenges, this article argues in contrast that there remain ample opportunities to conduct innovative scholarship on questions of nuclear security.
On 8 May 2017, Erik Gartzke and Paul Poast submitted a revised version of “Empirically Assessing the Bargaining Theory of War: Potential and Challenges.” in William Thompson, ed. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory, Oxford.
This was accepted on May 15 to the Oxford University Press.
This paper argues that further progress for the bargaining model, both among adherents and in the larger research community, depends increasingly on empirical testing of new theoretical implications and, increasingly, the model’s core claims.
On 28 May 2017, our research team updated our Named Entities Project by finishing the coding for the COW state membership data, and the Interstate wars conflict and participant data.
Undergraduate coders have begun coding for the Geacron dataset, which is still a work in progress.
On 14 April 2017, Erik Gartzke, Shannon Carcelli, J. Andres Gannon, and Jiakun Jack Zhang submitted their chapter entitled “Signaling in Foreign Policy” for the edited volume by Cameron Thies, ed. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Forthcoming.
On 17 April 2017, Erik Gartzke along with James Igoe Walsh submitted “The Drawbacks of Drones: The Effects of UAVs on Escalation and Instability in Pakistan."
On 14 April 2017, Erik Gartzke, Rex Douglass, and Jon R. Lindsay submitted their paper entitled “The Influence of Seapower on Politics: Domain- and Platform-Specific Attributes of Material Capabilities."
Erik Gartzke attended the International Studies Association Conference (ISA) in Baltimore Maryland.
Erik was a chair and discussant on the "US Grand Strategy and Force Posture" panel.
Erik was a chair on the "Experiments in Security Studies" panel.
Erik was a participant in the “The Enduring Relevance Question in Contemporary International Relations” roundtable.
Erik presented “No Humans Were Harmed in the Making of this War: On the Nature and Consequences of Automated Combat” to the Military Technologies in 21st Century International Security: Causes, Consequences and Crises” panel.
Erik presented “Deployments as Substitutes: Nuclear versus Conventional Military Deployments” to the “Emerging Research in Military Deployments and Force Projection panel.
Jon Lindsay attended the International Studies Association Conference (ISA) in Baltimore Maryland.
Jon was a discussant on the “Opening the Black Box of Cyber-Operations: A New Paradigm for Understanding Cyber-Enabled Conflict and International Relations” panel.
Jon was a participant in the “Lessons from the Iraq Surge: 10 Years Later” roundtable.
Jon was a participant in the “Strategy, Skepticism, and the Cyberwarfare Debate” roundtable.
On 21 February 2017, Rex Douglas presented a Power Projection at Conference, Baltimore, MD.
Rex presented Statistical analysis and replication for effects of naval power on power for a projection research article.
On 1 February 2017, GSR Andres Gannon presented work on gray zone conflict entitled “After Deterrence: Explaining Conflict Short of War” during a UCSD lab meeting.
On 28 February 2017, Erik Gartzke Gave a talk to the UCSD Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI).
Erik presented “Why do they (Still) Hate Us? The Origins of Instability in the Twentieth Century.”
Erik Gartzke contributed to the Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) analysis conducted as part of the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) gray zone effort in support of United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).
Erik gave a presentation on Gray zone conflict and provided feedback on other presentations.
Erik’s presentation and feedback was used to assist SMA in redefining Gray Zone Conflict.
Erik Gartzke, Shannon Carcelli, Andres Gannon, and Jack Zhang have completed an outline and have started drafting a foreign policy chapter, with the working title "Signaling and Leading Indicators of Crises," which involves signaling.
On 2 December 2016, Andres Gannon presented "The Role of Deterrence in (Re)defining the Gray Zone," during a UCSD lab meeting.
This is a joint paper by Erik Gartzke, J Andres Gannon, and Jon Lindsay.
On 7 December 2016, Rex Douglass and Andres Gannon presented their work on “Defining Military Domains: An Empirical Approach" during a UCSD lab meeting.
This paper is a product of the ICB data that was collected during the add-on Minerva grant.
Peter Schram has developed a game theory model of the winning vs warning phenomena.
This work is aimed to help identify when and where states select technologies that are better at signaling capacity versus technologies that are better at winning in war.
Jon Lindsay’s paper "Target Practice: Constructing Counterterrorism in Iraq, 2007-2008" was submitted for review by invitation of Science, Technology, and Human Values
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay’s paper entitled "Thermonuclear Cyberwar" has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Cybersecurity
On 15-16 November 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke participated in a CDD Table Top Exercise at LLNL
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke played in a Baltic scenario with a gray zone and a combat phase to think through CDD responses
Jon Lindsay played the president of one of the Blue Teams. Erik Gartzke acted as the "Whole of Government" team on the other Blue Team. The idea of having two blue teams run the exercise concurrently usefully highlighted the differences of opinion and assumption that emerge in a confusing CDD crisis environment
On 30 November 2016, Rex Douglass presented work based on the Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) data set during a UCSD lab meeting
On 23 November 2016, Shannon Carcelli presented “Blast from the Past: Revitalizing and Diversifying Deterrence Theory” during a UCSD lab meeting
On 22 November 2016, Jon Lindsay gave a lecture for U of Toronto Department of Philosophy on "Epistemic Prosthetics: Precision Weapons and Course Knowledge"
On 14 November 2016, Jon Lindsay participated as a panelist at the Modern war studies conference entitled “Reassessing Deterrence in the 21st Century” at West Point US Military Academy
On 10 November 2016, Erik Gartzke visited Columbia University for a Bridging the Gap: Cyber Conflict Workshop. The main emphasis of this workshop was on creating a community of researchers in the area of cyber conflict in political science
On 9 November 2016, Erik Gartzke met with Charles Glaser, Steven Biddle and Caitlin Talmadge to discuss the role of leadership (Trump election) in cross-domain deterrence
Peter Schram completed a draft of his modeling work entitled“Grey Zone Conflict and Hassling”A new theory section has been added complete with discussion on how grey zone conflict can demonstrate successful or unsuccessful deterrence. This draft is in circulation and gathering feedback.
On24 October, Erik Gartzke gave a talk at Palomar College on new models of deterrence entitled“Deterring Putin, Xi and Isis"
On5 October2016, Erik Gartzke gave a talk to the Military Veterans in Political Science (MVIPS) organization on Deterrence
On5 October2016, Jon Lindsay participated as an invited speaker for MIT’s Center for International Studies, and presented "Restrained by Design: Cybersecurity and the Attenuation of War"
On 11 October 2016, Jon Lindsay was a panelist at Atlantic Treaty Association (ATA) General Assembly, in Toronto CA
On 25October 2016, Jon Lindsay was a panelistat “Cyber Resilience: A Holographic Perspective on Continuing Threats and Potential Solutions” hosted by the Mackenzie Institute at Massey College, U of Toronto
Jon Lindsay completed a full draft of his book manuscript, “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control”. This Book includes case studies of military operations in several domains such as air defense, special operations, drone warfare, and cybersecurit
On 1-4 September 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke attended the American Political Science Association Annual Meetings in Philadelphia, PA
Jon presented his joint chapter with Erik Gartzke “Cross-Domain Deterrence as a Practical Problem and a Theoretical Concept”
Jon presented a summary of his book “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control”
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay participated in the “Deterrence and Coercion” panel, where they presented the introductory chapter for the CDD edited volume
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay participated in a roundtable discussion with Robert Jervis, Joshua Rovner, and Austin Carson on conflict in cyberspace
Erik Gartzke presented his paper on military personnel recruitment and was a discussant on a trade and conflict panel
On 30 September 2016, Jon Lindsay hosted a manuscript workshop to discuss “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control”
Jacquelyn Schneider acknowledged the CDD conference, its investigators and the Minerva Initiative in her introduction
On 15 September 2016, Jiakun Jack Zhang attended the Freeman Chair in China Studies Seminar Series at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and presented “Is China an Exception to the Commercial Peace?”
Jon met with Janice Stein, Joshua Rovner, Risa Brooks, and Michael Horowitz to present and receive feedback
On 12 September 2016, Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, and Rex Douglass attended an IMAPS workshop with the Center for Applied Internet Data Analysis (CAIDA) at the San Diego Supercomputer Center to explore the feasibility of providing an empirical mapping of the “key terrain” of cyberspace
On 30 September 2016, Erik Gartzke presented “Deterrence in the 21st Century: New Technologies and Dynamics” to the National Intelligence Council
On 28 September, Peter Schram presented modeling work on Gray Zone Conflict during a UCSD lab meeting
On 23 September 2016, Jon Lindsay presented at a panel at the “Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies” annual symposium entitled “The Cyber Challenge: Global Security Implications”
On 23 September 2016, GSR Andres Gannon (UCSD) presented his MCTL paper entitled “An Empirical Approach to Defining Domains” at the ISA West Conference
On 21 September 2016, GSR Andres Gannon presented his work on the MCTL paper entitled “An Empirical Approach to Defining Domains” during a UCSD lab meeting
On 14 September 2016, Professor Damon Coletta of the U.S Air Force Academy presented his work entitled “Courting Science: Securing the Foundation for a Second American Century”, during a UCSD lab meeting
On 18 July 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke Submitted their edited volume entitled “Cross Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity” to the Oxford University Press for review
Jon Lindsay completed his book chapter entitled "Drones and the Mediation of War" for his book on Control Complexity
On 27 July 2016, Erik Gartzke attended the 2016 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium in La Vista, NE
Andres Gannon (UCSD, GSR) was invited to the ISA West Conference to present his research entitled “An Empirical Approach to Defining Domains”
On 13 July 2016, Rex Douglass presented the status of the ICB data coding project during a UCSD lab meeting. Rex anticipates the coding will be complete in early September then transitioning into the analyses process
On 13 July 2016. Shannon Carcelli presented her deterrence literature review during a UCSD lab meeting. Shannon anticipates this work will be submitted for review in late August
On 20 July 2016, Erik Gartzke presented material on Gray Zone Conflict during a UCSD lab meeting
On 27 July 2016, Graduate Student Researcher Jinhui Jiao, from the University of Toronto, presented research on space and national security in China during a UCSD lab meeting.
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay completed a revision of "Thermonuclear Cyberwar" and sent this to Herb Lin at Stanford who will be submitting it to the Journal of Cybersecurity for review for inclusion in a special issue on Offensive Cyber Operations
On 10 June 2016, Jon Lindsay presented his work on CDD and cybersecurity for the Defence Engagement Program in Ottawa
On 20-22 June 2016, Erik Gartzke attended the European peace science conference hosted by the Network of European Peace Scientist (NEPS) in Milan, Italy
Erik Chaired a panel on “Military Organization”
Erik Presented “Drafting Disputes: Military Labor, Regime Type and Interstate Conflict”
On 23-25 June 2016, Erik Gartzke attended the 2016 Politics of International Relations Conference hosted by the Central and East European International Studies Association (CEEISA) in Ljubjana, Slovenia
Erik was a discussant on the “Analyzing War and Warfare” Panel
Erik was the Chair of the “ Political Economy of Security” Panel
Erik Gartzke participated in the 2016 East Asian Security Workshop which was held at Osaka university
Erik Presented material on “Military Labor and Interstate Conflict”
On 2 April 2016, Erik Gartzke visited the RAND Corporation. Erik Gartzke presented 2 papers on proper posture and how presence affects deterrence:
"Trust in Tripwires: Military Deployments, Costly Signaling and the Impact of U.S. Force Posture Decisions on Extended General Deterrence Success in Japan.”
"Being There: U.S. Force Posture, Offshore Balancing and Alliance Reliability”
Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: The Political Economy of Cybersecurity" at the U of Chicago Program in International Security Policy on 19 April 2016
Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: The Political Economy of Cybersecurity" at the Society for Military History Annual Meeting in Ottawa on 17 April 2016.
CDD volume is nearing completion for submission to OUP. RA Nicola Plummer (U of T) is copyediting the chapters from the edited volume.
The CDD project received a second human subject exemption from the UCSD IRB for the use of UCSD undergraduates who will be coding ICB data.
During a UCSD CDD lab meeting, GSR Andres Gannon presented his work on the Militarily Critical Technologies List (MCTL). Andres is currently analyzing the technology of each country and their capability to develop additional technologies through trade.
Rex Douglass and Clara Suong gave a training to a group of UCSD undergraduates on how to maneuver through the graphic user interface to code ICB cases.
Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay and Rex Douglass attended the International Studies Association conference in Atlanta, GA on 16-19 March 2016:
Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: The Political Economy of Cybersecurity"
Jon Lindsay presented "The Consequences of Complexity: Cybersecurity and Cross Domain Deterrence"
Jon Lindsay chaired the "Preventing Cyber Attacks" ISA panel
Erik Gartzke was a discussant on the "Environment and Conflict” panel
Erik Gartzke presented "A Logic of Commitment in International Relations” for the "Bargaining, Commitment, and Peace” Panel
Erik Gartzke presented “Sleeping Giant or Paper Tiger?: Latent Potential, Current Capabilities and Conventional Interstate Conflict" for the "The Proliferation of Proliferation: New Perspectives on the Spread of Nuclear Weapons" Panel
Erik Gartzke presented “Dissatisfied States" for the “Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory” panel
Erik Gartzke presented “The Influence of Seapower on Politics: Domain and Platform Specific Attributes of Material Capabilities" for the "Finance, Terrorism, and Insurgency” panel
Erik Gartzke was a chair and discussant on the "International Politics of Cyber Warfare” panel
Erik Gartzke visited the Monterey Institute for International Studies for the “Nukes in (Cyber)space: The Hazards of Cross-Domain Deterrence” Seminar on 2 March 2016.
Erik Gartzke presented his joint paper on “Cyberwar in a Thermonuclear World"
Jon Lindsay participated as a panelist for the "Borderless Threats" Panel at the 10th Annual Munk Graduate Student Conference entitled "A World With(out) Borders."
Erik Gartzke Chaired Yoshiharu Kobayashi’s presentation on “Re-evaluating the Utility of Economic Sanctions: Lessons from the Ukrainian Crisis”
Erik Gartzke presented “Drafting Disputes: Military Labor, Regime Type and Interstate Conflict”
Erik presented, with Koji Kagotani, “Being There: U.S. Force Posture, Offshore Balancing and Alliance Reliability"
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke’s CDD theory paper “Deterrence across Domains” was accepted for the American Political Science Convention in September 2016.
The University of Maryland has completed the coding of 42 cases for the CDD project and 23 additional cases have been assigned to UMD coders. Of the 42 cases that have been coded, 22 have been reviewed.
Erik Gartzke’s“Debating the Democratic Peace in the International System”was accepted for publication by theInternational Studies Quarterly.
Erik Gartzke attended the University of Houston’s Political Economy of Risk Conference
Erik Gartzkepresented his preliminary paper on uncertainty and war entitled“Knowing Unknowns: Assessing the Effect of Uncertainty on Interstate Conflict.”
Michael Nacht of UCB submitted a draft of his Chapter “Cross Domain Deterrence: In American Foreign Policy”for the CDD edited volume.
Rex Douglass finalized the ontology for coding the ICB data and delivered it to the University of Maryland’s coding team.
The U of Maryland began the coding of new data on CDD, covering all ICB crises (1918-2015).
Erik Gartzke attended an NSRI review at the University of Texas.
Erik Gartzke attended an after actions review on a 2015 NSRI workshop
Erik Gartzke presented the CDD projectand introduced the Minerva project collaborators atLawrence Livermore National Laboratory to Frank Gavin theChair in Nuclear Security Policy studies and Professor of Political Science at MIT.
Rex Douglass attended a Geo-spatial Conference at Duke for the basing project to gather relevant data on domains.
Rex Douglass presented work on problems of geospatial modeling, particularly scale in-variance of relationships
Rex Douglass met with several USAID employees to discuss modeling and development of conflict issues
Rex Douglass met with a head of geospatial lab at Stanford, Jonathan Rodden, and discussed the potential of collaborating on military maps in the Stanford map library
GSR’s Andres Gannon and Clara Suong presented an updated version of their basing projects and solicited feedback during a UCSD lab meeting.
Jon Lindsay was invited to present at the Canadian Department of National Defence. These meetings were attended by a diverse cross section of professionals from the intelligence and planning staffs.
Jon Lindsay gave a presentation on China and cybersecurity
Jon Lindsay gave 2 presentations on cross domain deterrence
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke attended the “Cyberspace and Deterrence Academic and Inter-Agency Symposium” at the George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs. This conference was attended by members of the US CYBERCOM J5, who informed us that our paper “Weaving Tangled Webs” in Security Studies on cyber deception has been very helpful in their internal discussions.
Erik Gartzke gave a presentation on CDD
Jon Lindsay gave a presentation on “Tipping the Scales: The Attribution Problem and the Feasibility of Deterrence against Cyber Attack.”
Jon Lindsay presented "The feasibility of deterrence in cyberspace"
Jon Lindsay participated in a "China and Cybersecurity" Roundtable
Jon Lindsay participated in a "Cross-Domain Deterrence" Roundtable
Jon Lindsay met with Joe Pilat (LANL investigator), to discuss CDD project.
Erik Gartzke co-hosted and presented an event for the San Diego Diplomacy Council, which had guests from East Asia and the Pacific to discuss the impact of technology on international security in areas such as cyber security, deterrence theory, and military power.
Rex Douglass presented the UCSD coding scheme for the ICB data during a Skype conference with UCSD and the University of Maryland collaborators.
Jon Lindsay presented work on Information Technology and Military Power during a UCSD Lab meeting.
Jon Lindsay and GSR Clara Suong presented an overview on the chapters of the CDD book during a UCSD lab meeting
CDD Team held the 2015 Annual Workshop at UCSB Sedgewick Reserve and presented the project’s theoretical work and empirical coding scheme for the project’s collaborators from UCSD, LLNL, UCB.
Erik Gartzke presented the CDD project overview
Michael Nacht presented the origins of CDD
UCSD GSR Shannon Carcelli presented her deterrence lit review
Jon Lindsay presented on the status of two CDD book-length projects.
Jon Lindsay presented the outline of his CDD book project
Jon Lindsay discussed an early draft of the edited volume containing contributions from major figures in the study of deterrence, new technologies and critical actors
Erik Gartzke presented CDD Naval Research “Within Domain Attributes: Naval Power”
Rex Douglass presented the CDD Coding Scheme for the empirical portion of the Minerva Grant
Ben Bahney, Jonathan Pearl, and Michael Markey presented CDD Air and Space Research “The Logic of Space Warfare and Cross Domain Deterrence”
Camber Warren Presented CDD Research “Communication, Strategy, and the Deterrence of Non-State Actors”
Tristan Volpe presented CDD Research “Threatening Proliferation: The Goldilocks Principle of Compellence with Nuclear Technology”
Erik Gartzke and Rex Douglass took part of a panel on nuclear proliferation on 2-6 September 2015 at the San Francisco APSA conference.
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke attended the Annual Minerva Program Review in Washington D.C. on 9-10 September 2015.
Jon Lindsay presented work in progress based on the CDD project on a panel on “gray-zone threats.”
Erik Gartzke presented CDD Material to the Executive Secretary for the Defense Science Board Task Force on Deterring, Preventing, and Responding to the Threat or Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction on 9 September 2015.
Erik Gartzke presented “Deterring Complex Threats: The Effects, Asymmetry, Interdependence, and Multi-polarity on International Strategy” for a DHS/START/MINERVA and SMA Technical Lecture Series via Teleconference on 15 September 2015.
Erik Gartzke met with Dr. Robert Griffin, Deputy Under Secretary, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and discussed the CDD project, cyber security, and the “dark web”.
Michael Nacht ‘s work appeared in an op ed as the cover story of the Insight Section of Sunday's 16 August 2015 SF Chronicle on the threats posed by new technologies. The work is based on on-going work at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. http://sfchron.cl/1TDkuNr
Jon Lindsay guest lectured on China and Security for a “Cyber Policy and Strategy” course for the Naval Post Graduate School’s National Security Affairs Department on 25 August 2015.
Rex Douglass presented the demonstration of a new interface for human coding of ICB sentences during a UCSD lab meeting. This new version demonstrates branching logic that asks the coder only for more information when relevant.
CDD Team held a conference at Duke University and presented the project’s theoretical work and ICB coding scheme to collaborators from the University of Maryland, State University of New York, Albany and Duke University.
Jon Lindsay presented the CDD project overview
Erik Gartzke presented the CDD Naval Research
Rex Douglass presented the CDD Coding Scheme for the empirical portion of the Minerva Grant
Erik Gartzke attended the 2015 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium in Omaha, Nebraska.
Keynote speakers included: ADM Haney, Commander of STRATCOM, Robert Work, Deputy Secretary of Defense, RADM Beverstock, Assistant Chief of UK Defense Staff for WMD, Brad Roberts, and William J. Perry Fellow in International Security
Erik met with Robert Vince, the Director of the National Security Office at LLNL. Robert outlined a number of opportunities for the CDD project, including inviting the CDD research team to participate in a conference to be held in Livermore, CA in November 2015
Erik met with Robert Hinson, Executive Director of the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska.
Erik Gartzke was a Panel Member for book conference on “Democracy, Economic Interdependence, and War” (Dale Copeland, Princeton University Press).
Erik Gartzke co-organized the “Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory Conference” at Princeton University, in which his co-authors presented two papers “Uncertainty and War” and “War is in the Variance-Covariance Matrix.”
Jon Lindsay presented the CDD research activity at the UCSD Strategic Studies Summit.
Erik Gartzke presented at the UCSD Strategic Studies Summit and introduced the CDD project to potential GSR recruits.
Graduate Student Researcher Shannon Carcelli presented her literature review on Deterrence at UCSD Lab Meeting.
Paul Spitsen presented his literature review on Sea Power at a UCSD Lab Meeting.
Clara Suong presented her literature review on Basing Strategy and Power Projection at UCSD Lab Meeting.
Rex Douglass presented a draft chapter for the Economic Aspects of Genocides, Mass Atrocities, and Their Prevention (Oxford University Press), ed. Chuck Anderton and Jurgen Brauer at UCSD Lab Meeting.
Michael Nacht, Patricia Schuster, Eva Uribe created a poster outlining the working progress of the UCB’s draft chapter for the CDD project.
Article by Stephan Haggard and Jon Lindsay on the North Korean Sony Hack accepted for publication in peer-reviewed paper series Asia Pacific Issues.
Jon Lindsay gave a presentation on “The Cyber Domain” at the 18th MIT Senior Congressional and Executive Office Branch Seminar, Cambridge, Mass., 8-10 April 2015
Erik Gartzke presented a draft of his paper “The Influence of Seapower upon Politics” at our internal lab meeting. This analysis uses a combination of datasets to examine how the distinctive properties of the naval domain shape conflict behavior. This initial findings provide strong support for our founding assumption in CDD that different domains have different strategic characteristics.
Jon Lindsay presented a draft paper “The Attribution Problem and the Stability of Deterrence” at our internal lab meeting. The attribution problem is critical in cyber but also space and intelligence operations. This paper uses a simple model to argue that attribution can be accommodated in the traditional bargaining model of war, but different assumptions about it lead to different expectations about the stability of deterrence.
Erik Gartzke attended the 21-26 April PRIO Oslo “Forecasting Conflict” Conference, where he discussed the uncertainty modeling dimension of the CDD project.
CDD research team hosted a conference, attended by 40 of the leading security studies scholars, on 6-7 November 2014 in La Jolla, CA. Major intellectual outputs from the conference are:
While traditional deterrence theory focuses on the ends of deterrence, CDD focuses on the means, options, combinations, and tradeoffs in deterrence.
Definitions of domains and the different ways to define domains remained a point of contention among conference participants and an urgent task for the CDD team to tackle.
Many participants suggested we should define domains more systematically and ponder on characteristics of the threats/domains.
Definitions of domains remain unclear and debatable but there is no advantage in distancing or choosing from one type of categorization over others.
Latent capabilities may be able to deter before weaponization by CDD but the indicators are not very visible and ambiguous. However, cross domain threats may increase instability
Some basic questions about CDD we need to answer include: who is being deterred; what the goal of CDD; what the threat is and whether it is credible; when the threat must be executed; how the delay impacts credibility; who executes the threat; and what the target of the threat is
First, we need to determine what the trigger, that is, standards of behavior, are. Some things are acceptable whereas others are not and the standard needs to be agreed on. Second, we need to see what responses are appropriate in terms of their magnitude, length of response, and proportionality. Third, we need to see which domains are linked
There are a number of challenges for space deterrence, and the dynamics of space deterrence are poorly understood in the literature. Space deterrence is fragile, and if it fails, it could fail before traditional deterrence fails
CDD involves the development and possible employment of unlike capabilities. We can collect data on a single domain, while looking for cross-domain influences.
Another option is to collect data on multiple domains
Measurement panel highlighted the feasibility of measuring CDD
Panels on historical and regional applications discussed preliminary CDD concepts
Jon Lindsay presented “Cybersecurity and International Relations: Evaluating the Threat from China” at the University of Toronto Munk School of Global Affairs on 10 November
Jon Lindsay presented at George Mason University School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs on 13 November
Jon Lindsay participated in the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen China on 19-21 November
Lindsay, Jon and Lucas Kello. “Correspondence: A Cyber Disagreement.” International Security Fall 2014, Vol. 39, No. 2: 181–192
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke participated in a UCSD campus-led visit to the National Security Agency and met with NSA Director and his staff 9 September.
Erik Gartzke gave a talk at the University of Exeter (UK) on “Cyber Deception” and met with members of the faculty of the Department of Security Studies 19 September.
Erik Gartzke gave a talk at the University of St. Gallen (Switzerland) on “Trust in Tripwires: A Logic of Extended Deterrence” 24 September.
Erik Gartzke attended a conference at Duke University, held by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) on bargaining and energy security, where he discussed ideas about the role of deterrence in the energy domain 29-30 September.
Erik Gartzke presented “No Humans Were Harmed in the Making of his War: The Nature and Consequences of ‘Costless’ Combat” and “Strategy in an Era of Complexity: An Outline of the Cross-Domain Deterrence” on 7 July at the Centre of Excellence for National Security at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Research team held annual workshop in La Jolla, CA on 16 July with prominent security studies scholars and CDD research partners. The team advanced towards a greater mutual understanding of cross-domain deterrence, and refined theories. Major discussion points include:
Developing a bargaining idiom and defining success in CDD differently than in classical deterrence. CDD is more about playing the game well.
Deterrence itself is about ends and about changing behaviors, but the focus of CDD research is on means and the way things are conducted. This research attempts to address the question of when changing the means matters.
Asymmetric vulnerability: if there is asymmetric vulnerability, then CDD is part of the bargaining for strategic equilibrium.
One hypothesis about complexity is that it increases the probability of escalation and it also magnifies the threat of something being left to chance. The counter hypothesis is that complexity decreases probability of escalation precisely because it magnifies the threat of something being left to chance.
Alternatively, we can see this as a continuum of intensity, where there are few moves with clear—and clearly bad—consequences as compared with many moves with ambiguous consequences. This points to the need to tease out causal logic of when complexity increases or decreases risk
Jon Lindsay submitted a revision of “Cybersecurity and International Relations: Evaluating the Threat from China” to International Security.
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay traveled to DC, 5-7 May to meet with policymakers, including representatives from USIP, DASD for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, OSD Strategy, CYBERCOM, the Rand Corporation, the Cato Institute, and various academic institutions. Meetings served to refine conceptual framework and generate interest in research, and were successful.
Erik Gartzke attended the "Historical Analysis for Defense and Security Symposium" (HADSS) workshop organized by the UK Ministry of Defense Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), 21-22 May where he presented a paper titled, "No Humans Were Harmed in the Making of this War: On the Nature and Consequences of 'Costless' Combat."