Events

April 2019

On 20 April 2019, Jon Lindsay submitted the final draft of his book entitled Information Technology and Military Power to Cornell.
- This book describes the history of thinking about information and war in the context of increasing operational (cross-domain) complexity, provides a theory about organizational and strategic context, and presents a series of case studies of operations in different domains (air campaigns, land counterinsurgency, special operations counterterrorism), then explains implications for strategy and policy
- We anticipate an early 2020 publication date in time for ISA in Honolulu
On 30 April 2019, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke gave a talk at UCSD to discuss CDD and promote the Edited Volume
- CDD talk: https://youtu.be/klfcnIV0kCE
- Q&A: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b1kIS9GWNHc&feature=youtu.be
From 11-12 April 2019, Erik Gartzke attended the OUSD Future Directions Workshop in Arlington, VA
- This workshop examines emerging research that is most likely to transform future technology capabilities. During the workshop the following topics were addressed
  - How might the research impact science and technology capabilities of the future?
  - What is the possible trajectory of scientific achievement?
  - What are the most fundamental challenges to progress?
On 25 April 2019, Henry Sokolski gave a talk entitled "Nuclear Exports to Riyadh: Risky Business"
- This talk covered Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power aspirations and activity that could bring Saudi Arabia to the brink of building nuclear bombs
On 18 April 2019 Matthew Kroenig gave a talk entitled "Explaining Trumps Nuclear Policy"
- Kroenig reviewed the major developments in Trump’s nuclear policy and argued that the administration’s policies have on balance strengthened US and global security
On 10 April 2019, General Wallace Gregson gave a talk entitled "The INDOPACIFIC, Big Things, Wicked Problems, No Easy Solutions"
On 17 April 2019, GSR Andres Gannon presented his IISS data project at MIT Security Studies Working Group (SSWG)
- Andres has now collected data on Warsaw Pact defense spending and military equipment inventories from 1980-present
On 2 April, 2019, GSR Andres Gannon attended the Future of Statecraft in Washington, DC organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- This conference examine the future of great power cooperation, international institutions, and economic statecraft.
On 20 April 2019, GSR Patrick Hulme finished a draft of his paper entitled Who Authorized That?"
- This paper discusses congressional Authorizations for Use of Military Force (AUMFs)
- This paper compares military force and success rates against congressional approval/disapproval

March 2019

On 29 March 2019, Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay participated in a CDD Edited Volume roundtable at the University of Toronto
- Participants included M. Taylor Fravel (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Charlie Glaser (George Washington University), Kimberly Marten (Columbia University), and Janice Gross Stein (University of Toronto)
From 27 March – 1 April 2019, Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, Andres Gannon, Tom Scherer, Matt Millard, and Patrick Hulme attended the International Studies Association Conference in Toronto, CA
- Erik - Paper “Complementarity of Cyber Operations: Why do States Fight in Cyberspace in Addition to, or Instead of, Other Domains?”, Chair for the “War Gaming and Simulations in International Security” panel, Discussant on the “Climate Change and Armed Conflict” panel
- Jon - Paper: "Technological Developments and the International System" & " Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity" & "The Politics and Strategy of Cyber" & "Beyond the Nuclear Revolution: New Sources on the Politics of the Bomb" & "Changing Nature of War"
- Andres - Panel: The Ways of War: The Changing Nature of the Conduct of International Conflict
  Paper: "How States Fight: Measuring Heterogeneity in the Distribution of State Military Capabilities”
- Tom - Panel: Conflict Management: What Works and What Doesn’t
  Paper: "Diplomacy Actions in International Crisis"
- Matt - Paper: "Of Mountains, Battleships, and Tanks: Territorial Effects on Military Expenditures" & "Keeping it Secret: Secret Alliance Texts as Signaling and Coordination Agreements
On 21 March 2019, Braden Soper of LLNL gave a presentation via skype
- Braden discussed current modeling work on CDD
From 11-18 March 2019, Erik Gartzke attended the Hertie Nuclear Conference, Berlin, Germany
- The Conference covered the contemporary academic and political debate on the future of nuclear sharing and the role of non-strategic nuclear weapons in NATO’s nuclear posture

February 2019

On 28 February 2019, Andres Gannon submitted "Keeping Your Friends Close, But Acquaintances Closer: Why Weakly Allied States Make Loyal Coalition Partners" to the International Studies Quarterly
- This project uses the IISS data and was presented at APSA in 2018
- This paper was submitted for a panel at the 2019 American Political Science Association (APSA) conference
On 26-27 February 2019, Erik Gartzke attended the Center for Global Security’s workshop entitled “Compete, Deter, and Win” in a Trans-Regional Perspective: On Meeting the New Challenges of Extended Deterrence at LLNL
- The workshop addressed how close the United States and its allies in regards to needed strategy and posture to compete, deter, and win from the perspective of 21st-century regional contingencies and their potential for all domain escalation
On 26 February, Andres Gannon attended the Bridging the Gap’s 2019 New Era Workshop at the University of California, Berkeley
- The workshop focused on making academic work relevant to policymakers, reviewed how to framework for non-academic audiences, then conducted a 2-day scenario planning simulation exercise
On 20 February 2019, Erik Gartzke attended the Vanderbilt Conflict workshop
- Erik presented “How about “Rethinking Rational Deterrence”
On 28 February 2019, Andres Gannon Submitted his working paper on cruise missiles to the Online Peace Science Colloquium run by the Peace Science Society (International)
On 21 February 2019, Jason Reinhardt of Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) presented his working paper entitled A Probabilistic Analysis of the Risk of Nuclear Deterrence Failure
- This presentation included modern deterrence challenges and addressed how changes to nuclear deterrence affect strategic stability and deterrence outcome
On 19 February 2019, GSR Patrick Hulme was informed that his working paper entitled “Who Authorized That?" was a winner in the Article 1 Initiative’s writing contest, which included a $1,000 award
- This paper discusses congressional Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMFs)
  - This paper compares military force and success rates against congressional approval/disapproval

January 2019

On 16 January 2019, David Maxwell participated as a guest speaker for Erik Gartzke’s National Security Policy Speaker Series NPSS, at UCSD
- David Maxwell is a senior fellow at Foundations for Defense of Democracies, a 30-year veteran of the United States Army as a Special Forces Colonel with his final assignment serving on the military faculty teaching national security strategy at the National War College.
- The title of the talk was "Security Situation on the Korean Peninsula And Threats to the Republic of Korea – United States Alliance"
On 14-15 January 2019, Erik Gartzke attended the Eurasian Peace Science Conference
- The purpose of this meeting was to address Peace Science in Contested Space
  - The conference’s goals were to broaden cooperation and intellectual dialogue amongst Eurasian and Middle Eastern peace science scholars, to encourage the fruitful interaction with the worldwide peace science community, and to bring together the most updated and relevant research on conflict and peace-related topics from throughout the entire world
On 17-18 January 2019, Andres Gannon, Tom Scherer, and Matt Millard attended the Charles Koch Foundation’s Foreign Policy Seminar series at the University of Southern California.
- This workshop gathered doctoral students and post-docs with an interest in American foreign policy and grand strategy
- The workshop discussed important questions relating to strategic actions and use of means, discussed US foreign policy in East Asia, with a particular emphasis on North Korea and China, and engaged in a policy simulation on US grand strategy in the region

December 2018

On 12-13 December 2018, Erik Gartzke attended the Naval Postgraduate School to present cPASS research to members of the Defense Analysis Department
- Erik gave a talk entitled “How about “Rethinking Rational Deterrence”

On 3 December 2018, GSR ShahBano Syeda and Postdoc Thomas Scherer attended the Project on Nuclear Gaming PONG: SIGNAL NUCLEAR GAMING SYMPOSIUM at the University of California, Berkeley
- Thomas and ShahBano participated in the wargaming event and met with team leads to discuss the project and data collection
- This is a separate project under Co-Investigator Michael Nacht that covers Cross-Domain Deterrence and the Future of Wargaming, gameplay, and Conflict Escalation in the Modern Era

November 2018

From 13-14 November 2018, Erik Gartzke attended the 5^th Annual LLNL Deterrence Workshop, hosted by the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR)
- The workshop focused on the following questions
  - How do the United States, Russia, and China approach strategic competition in their defense strategies?
  - How should the United States and its allies integrate efforts to improve strategic competitiveness with efforts to strengthen deterrence?
  - What impact might new forms of strategic competition have on strategic stability?
  - How can the United States and its allies reap the disruptive and deterrence benefits of new technologies while avoiding the unintended consequences?
On 20 November 2018, Peter Schram completed his gray zone conflict/hassling paper and it is now under review at the American political science review.
- This paper analyzes a game theoretic model of low-level military operations conducted outside of war
- This paper finds that these operations are conducted to slow power shifts that would otherwise destabilize the international system
- This paper explores cases ranging from Russia's activities in Eastern Ukraine to Israel's Operation outside the Box against Syria
November 8-11, Erik Gartzke and Michael Rubin attended the Peace Science Society Conference in Austin, TX.
- Michael participated in a workshop entitled "The Rebel Governance Network”
  - The workshop focused on rebel group political structures, service provision, and rebel governance through civilian institutions.
  - The goal of the workshop was to identify gaps in knowledge regarding these topics and develop ways forward for researchers to address these gaps.
  - This discussion will be useful for the next steps in the Named Entities-NonState project that our team is in the process of collecting data for
On 15 November 2018, Laura Epifanovskaya & Jason Reinhardt of the Sandia National Laboratory presented The Project on Nuclear Gaming (PoNG)
- The Project on Nuclear Gaming (PoNG) is a multidisciplinary team formed by researchers from the University of California, Berkeley, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories
  - The research project is intended to raise understanding of nuclear deterrence and conflict escalation with an eye toward better informed future analysis and debate; to generate insights into the conditions that might contribute to stability and instability in the context of nuclear weapons optimized for specific military objectives; and to develop game-based analytic and experimental tools for social science research
On 15 November 2018, Admiral Robert Thomas met with the UCSD research team and gave a talk at the National Security Policy Speaker Series hosted by Erik Gartzke.
- Admiral Thomas gave a talk entitled "Taking Stock of U.S. Treaty Alliances in the Indo-Pacific, a Practitioner's Perspective
  - This talk covered the Indo Pacific area and the future of U.S. Security posture in the region
From 9-11 November 2018, Andres Gannon attendedInternational Security Studies Section of ISA (ISSS) and theInternational Security and Arms Control Section of APS’s ISSS-IS Annual Conference 2018, in West Lafayette, IN.
- Andres participated in the “An Embarrassment of Riches: Using New Data to Understand International Security” Panel where he presented 2 papers
  - Cruisin' for a Bruisin': The Effects of US Cruise Missile Strikes Since the Gulf War
  - An Empirical Approach to Defining Military Domains
From 17-18 November 2018, Matt Millard attended theInternational Studies Association Midwest (ISA)
- Matt presented his working Paper entitled "Of Mountains, Battleships, and Tanks: Territorial Effects on Military Expenditures"
  - This research demonstrates how territory affects military budgets by using models to analyze the role of border strength and border stability measures, along with other explanations, and their impact on defense budgets.
  - This paper argues that a state’s ability to collect revenues for defense are heightened when borders are clearly defined and easily defended. Using geographic data, it shows that states that are clearly defined by rivers, mountain, and oceans spend less money on defense budgets as a proportion of GDP because the prospects of war are lower and internal social cohesion is higher, decreasing the need for large standing militaries for either repression, expansion, or defense.
From 1-4 November 2018, Wakako Maekawo attended the Japan Association of International Relations annual convention
- Wakako attended the Theory and Methods sectional meeting which involves IR Studies Using Quantitative Text Analysis
  - Wakako presented her research entitled “Estimating Preferences of Conflict Parties in Civil Wars”
The paper shows how conflicting bargaining positions and compatible hidden interests can be estimated from the speeches they made. The study classifies words into topics/issues and utilizes Bayesian IRT to make three inferences: (1) latent ideological positions of belligerents, (2) perceived incompatibilities caused by the committed bargaining position, and (3) compatible interests

October 2018

On 11 October 2018, Erik Gartzke visited the Naval Post Graduate School and met with Tristan Volpe and other members of the Defense Analysis Department.
- Erik discussed the research on Cross-Domain Deterrence and the possibility a joint collaboration between UCSD and NPS regarding nuclear security and great power security relations
  - The collaboration would include both a speaker series and research that would lead to publications geared towards both policymakers and academics
On 25 October 2018, Erik Gartzke gave a presentation to the San Diego World Affairs Council
- Erik gave a cyber talk entitled Cooperation & Conflict in the Virtual World.
  - This talk covered how cyber and other emerging technologies will shape the future of world affairs
  - Erik discussed traditional and emerging forms and modes of conflicts and deterrence, including the automation of war and its consequences
From 14-20 October 2018, Erik Gartzke visited the United Kingdom and gave 5 talks (the University of Exeter on the 15th, the University of Essex on the 17th, Royal Holloway on the 18th, and 2 talks at the University of Oxford on the 19th)
- Erik’s talks included an overview of the Minerva research, the upcoming CDD edited volume, and conversations on cyber and nuclear security
Michael Rubin and Wakako Maekawa have taken over Coding projects for the non-state actor's piece of the Named Entities Social Science Project (NESS-Non State)
- They have started to scrape rebel organizations and will work with Rex Douglass in organizing two papers
  - The 1st paper will describe the data collection process and introduce scholars to the sample of non-state political actors
  - The second paper will map the genealogies of the organizations and include variables describing their characteristics and strategies, etc.
    - Since the information being collected is not event-based but the unit is an organization, it will be able to detail causal paths of regime change or resistance
    - Existing datasets provide sufficient event information, combined with the NESS NonState dataset and institution datasets, researchers would be able to identify whether existing or nonexistent incompatibilities lead to the onset of events
    - For policymakers, if it is combined with GEO location code, it will help make predictions for high/low levels of security threats or high/low levels of resolutions given identified MINSPO (minimum independent organization)
On 18 October 2018, Professor Heidi Hardt of UC Irvine attended a UCSD lab meeting and presented findings from her new book NATO's Lessons in Crisis (Oxford University Press, 2018)
- Our graduate students we able to discuss the data collection efforts and experiments that were conducted with elites

September 2018

From 26-27 September, Erik Gartzke, Tom Scherer, Jack Zhang, Andres Gannon, and Shannon Carcelli attended the 2018 Annual Minerva Conference in Washington DC
- Erik Gartzke presented a 20 minute overview of the research done at UCSD
- Erik Gartzke and other UCSD team members met with Minerva PI Jonathan Wilkenfeld from the University of Maryland to discuss future data and publication collaboration with our cross-domain initiative
- Andres Gannon and Shannon Carcelli presented "Deterring Complex Threats: The Effects of Asymmetry
  - This presentation took place on the "Assessing Vulnerability" panel which discussed the broader policy implications of our work and updated the Minerva community on our various projects
  - Our team met with colleagues from the University of Maryland for break out discussions on "Engaging the National Defense Strategy" with Department of Defense officials explaining how our research informs the administration new National Defense Strategy. Particularly, we noted the renewed emphasis on great powers and the role of lethality in the administration's new direction
From 30 August - September 2nd, Andres Gannon, Jon Lindsay, Erik Gartzke, and Jack Zhang attended APSA in Boston, MA.
- Jon and Erik presented their Gray Zone paper at the "Information Warfare, Past and Present" panel (which Jon chaired and acted as discussant)
- Erik was chair and discussant for the "Multi-Domain Deterrence: Evaluating a Central Challenge of the 21st Century" panel
- Andres Gannon presented "Friends without Benefits: Explaining Costly Contributions to Unnecessary Wartime Conditions." This research utlitizes our newly created data on military deployments fro the IISS data project to examine the war in Afghanistan
  - Andres received feedback about proper statistical modeling for our theory about coalition warfare as a signal used to improve interstate relaitons and suggestions about how to expand the analysis beyond the Afghan war
- Andres Gannon presented After Deterrence: Explaining Conflict Short of War to the "Information Warfare, Past and Present" panel
  - Andres received feedback and re-orienting the theoretical contribution to be more about deterrence and less about the efficiency gains form gray zone conflict
- Andres Gannon was discussant for a panel on "Secrecy, Covertness, and Deception"
- Jack participated in the Political Risk with Chinese Characteristics panel. Jack presented his MS "Is China an Exception to the Commerical Peace?"
  - Jack received excellent feedback from other political scientists working on the political economy of conflict in China such as Quan Li (TAMU), Kristin Vekasi (University of Maine), and Kacie Muira (MIT)
On 20 September 2018, Erik Gartzke attended the Assessing Strategic Effects of Artificial Intelligence Conference at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
- During this conference, Erik gave a talk entitled "Non-Artifical Intelligence About Deterrence Across Domains"
Tom Scherer and Andres Gannon had papers accepted to present at the International Studies Association (ISA) conference in April 2019
- Andres will be presenting his paper on the evolving means of war
- Ton will be presenting his diplomacy paper in which he used coded data from the ICB project
On 5-7 September Andres attended the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS) Research Transparency and Reproducibility Training (RT2)
- Andres received training on best practices for data management and workflow coordination using software that our team utilizes i.e. Github and R
On 17 September 2018, GSR Jack Zhang presented "Is China an Exception to the Commercial Peace?" to the IR Faculty Colloquium at Princeton University
- The presentation took place in front of the international relations faculty and students of the Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Politics at Princeton
On 24 September 2018 Jon Lindsay visited the Kings College in London to present his work on Cross-Domain Deterrence: Politics by Many Means
- https://www.kcl.ac.uk/events/event-story.aspx?id=8bd2bcca-d137-4b1e-90d5-2fe6255e42cf
From 27-29 September 2018, Jon Lindsay attended the State of the Art of Cybersecurity and Cyberconflict Research Conference
- Jon presented his paper entitled "Why Quantum Computing will not Destabilize International Security"
- This conference was organized by the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland

August 2018

Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay's CDD Edited Volume is with the Oxford University Press
- We have the copyedited draft back and plan to return our edits to the press late September 2018
- We are on track for a winter 2019 publication
On 8 August 2018, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke presented their coauthored working papers during a UCSD lab meeting. "Timing and Headspace: The Dynamics of Prevention and Pre-emption in the Cyber Domain" and "Cross-Domain Deterrence: Politics by Many Means"
- The Timing and Headspace paper is still very much a work in progress, but Jon will discuss it at a workshop in Cambridge (UK) in September 2018
- The CDD paper we hope to have revised and submitted in 2018
On 7 Auugst 2018, Jack Zhang's article entitled "Why Republicans Don't Push Back on Trump's China Tariffs--In One Map" was published in Monkey Cage
- This article suggests that Republican support for free trade is an illusion and the shift in rhetoric among Republican lawmakers predates Trump's hostility toward China and helped create the current bipartisan consensus around anti-China economic nationalism
From 1-3 August 2018, Andres Gannon attended the STRATCOM Deterrence Symposium in La Vista, Nebraska
- Andres participated in PANEL #5: New Thinking on Deterrence I Academic Alliance
- Andres presented his gray zone paper
  - This paper was well received by General Hyten, leading academics, and policymakers

July 2018

On 11 July 2018, Braden Soper of Lawrence Livermore attended our lab meeting, to present his modeling work entitled “Time and Punishment: Folk Theorems and the Dynamics of Deterrence"
- Braden's work uses Rock-Paper-Scissors as a model for cross domain interactions to model cross domain deterrence. Braden has looked at repeated games and the corresponding Folk Theorems
- Current/Future work in this area is as follows:
  - Extend this analysis to more complex stochastic games with an evolving state
  - Look more closely at asymmetric strategy spaces (available domains). Can we learn any general rules about adding domains and escalation?
  - Can we utilize the database the UCSD team has been developing to test some of these ideas against observed empirical cases?
  - Look at information assymetries in the context of repeated CDD games
  - Explore the timing of moves in the context of repeated CDD games
  - This work is projected to be complete in the spring of 2019
From 8-22 July 2018, Andres Gannon attended the Summer Workshop on the Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy (SWAMOS)
- This was a 2 week workshop where he received training on military tactics and operations from academics, policymakers, and military practitioners
  - The training has directly improved the IISS, cruise missle, and gray zone conflict projects

June 2018

On 29 June 2018, Jon Lindsay presented his MS entitled "Why Quantum Computing will not Destabilize International Security: The Political Logic of Cryptology" to the Digital Issues Discussion Group
On 20 June 2018, Peter Schram presented his latest work on gray zone conflict during a UCSD lab meeting
- This work is a version of "Hassling," which falls between peace and gray zone conflict
On 13 June 2018, during a UCSD lab meeting, Andres Gannon presented an update on the Gray Zone MS
- This is a joint paper wiht Erik Gartzke and Jon LIndsay that explains conflict short of war
On 6-9 June 2018, GSR Andres Gannon presented "Coordination in Conflict Theaters: Explaining Ally Contributions to Military Conflicts" at the 11th Annual Political Netwowrks Conference in Arlington, VA
- This paper uses the IISS data on military contributions to the war in Afghanistan to explain why countries make oversized contributions to coalition warfare relative to the size of their overall armed forces
- Andres received feedback about ways to improve the measurement in this paper which help improve the next version that will be presented at the APSA conference in September 2018
On 5 June 2018, Jon Lindsay visited the US Naval War College to deliver a lecture on "Information, Technology, and War" for the Joint Professional Military Education II curriculum
- This is the first outside lecturer in several years for JPME II. The lecture included material about cross-domain deterrence
- Jon presented a second paper on "Why Quantum Computing will not Destabilize International Security: The Political Logic of Cryptology"

May 2018

On 30 May 2018, Mr. Robert Taylor (J5 Acting Director, Plans and Policy Stratcom) and Vice Admiral Robert L. Thomas, Jr., U.S. Navy (ret) met with the UCSD lab group
- Our team briefed them on some of our work on deterrence with some theory/evidence we have put together on gray zone conflict
On 30 May 2018, during a UCSD lab meeting, GSR Patrick Hulme presented his work, entitled "Restoring Congressional Control Over the Use of Military Force"
- This paper outlines the use of force absent in congressional authorization and will evaluate the success and failures versus congressional approved military actions
On 23 May 2018, Andres presented his work on the International Institute for Strategic Studies IISS
- Andres has finished coding military personnel and spending data for all countries from 2001-2014. Finished coding military equipment inventory data for all countries during 2014
- This work was presented at the UCSD International Relations Retreat and got feedback about expanding the scope of the project to include domestic factors that influence national force structure decisions. Also got feedback about operationalizing military capabilities across countries by creating a new cosine similarity measure
- Andres has submitted the IISS project for a panel at the 2018 International Studies Association (ISA) Conference
On 23 May 2018, Andres presented his owrk on Named Entities Wikipedia lit review
- The UCSD team has started and finished a Wikipedia lit review analyzing scholarly work on the construction of Wikipedia, its quality, and how to extract information from it. This work will comprise the lit review section of the first paper on Named Entities using the NESS dataset
On 21 May 2018, John Lauder from the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) visited UCSD and presented "Monitoring Nuclear Agreements with Iran and North Korea: Some Relevant Lessons from the Past"
- Erik Gartzke invited John to meet with the UCSD lab team, give a talk at his speaker series and his WMD course
On 16 May 2018, during a UCSD lab meeting, Andres Gannon presented the current draft of the IISS project entitled "Use their Force: International Security Alignments and Military Force Structure"
- Andres received feedback on the theoretical contribution that examines how security alliances influence a country's distribution of military capabilities
- Data collection for 2014 is almost complete and undergraduate coders can then finish completing 2001-2013 which is done for roughly 50 countries
On 7 May 2018, Brad Roberts from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory visited UCSD and presented "Continuity and Change in US Nuclear Policy from the Cold War to Trump"
- Erik Gartzke invited Brad to meet with the UCSD lab team, give a talk at his speaker series and his WMD course
On 2 May 2018, during a UCSD lab meeting, Andres Gannon presented current draft of cruise missiles project entitled "Cruisin' for a Bruisin': The Effects of US Cruise Missile Strikes Since the Gulf War"
- Received feedback on what social science questions can be answered using this data and concluded that focusing on the different platforms used to conduct strikes would be a fruitful endeavor
  - Andres has completed the data collection process and re-organized the data to the proper unit of analysis
  - Andres began re-writing the paper to focus on the type of actors targeted in US cruise missile operations
On 2 May 2018, Andres presented his owrk on Cruise Missiles during a UCSD lab meeting
- Andres began coding for target characteristics for all US cruise missile operations
- Andres got feedback on theorizing why some platforms are better suited to attacking some types of targets than others
- Draft of second paper on platform type and target selection has begun
GSR Andres Gannon received confirmation of acceptance to present the gray zone project at the United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium on 1-2 August 2019
Jon Lindsay finished revising the CDD manuscript delivered to Oxford University Press. Oxford and our team anticipates a January 2019 publication date
- Jon Lindsay assembled a proposal for a March 2019 ISA roundtable on the edited volume
  - This proposal will be with leading scholars including Joseph Nye, Janice Stein, Charles Glaser, Michael Nacht, and Kimberly Marten
Jon Lindsay submitted his article entitled "Why Quantum Computing will not Destabilize International Security: The Political Logic of Cryptology" for review

April 2018

On 24 April 2018, Shannon Carcelli presented work to a research team located at USC
- The title of this paper is "Bureaucracy at the Border"
  - This was part of a graduate student exchange to help solicit feedback from outside academics, regarding current manuscripts
  - Shannon received feedback on her paper from USC students and faculty. This experience allowed Shannon to gain ideas for future data collection and paper topics
On 21 April 2018, Erik Gartzke gave a talk to the San Diego Independent Scholars colloquium at UCSD
- Erik's talk was entitled "Fighting by Bits and Bytes: What to Expect from Internet Conflict"
  - Erik laid out the main characteristics of conflict in cyberspace, using information about the nature of war and what we know so far about the activity of defenders and aggressors on the internet and elsewhere
  - The conclusions of this talk challenge emerging conventional wisdom about cyber conflict
  - Cyberwar is a weapon of the strong, not the weak. The United States will be a major beneficiary of actions on the internet. As in all domains, crime will continue in cyberspace, but to date it is proportionally small, allowing major firms and institutions to continue to practice weak forms of cyber security
On 9 April 2018, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke completed revisions on new substantive concluding chapter for the CDD volume
- This chapter provides an important bridge from the stock-taking work of the volume to the theory-building endeavor of the project
From 3-8 April 2018, Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, Rex Douglass, Andres Gannon, Shannon Carcelli, and Jiakun Jack Zhang of the Minerva research team attended the International Studies Association convention (ISA)
- Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay presented their paper entitled "Timing and Headspace: The Dynamics of Covert Strategies for Prevention and Preemption"
  - This talk was given at the Power Projection, Attribution, and Control in 21st Century Information Warfare: fake News, Trolls, and Alternative Narratives
- Erik Gartzke chaired the Dynamic Force: Military Mobilization, Demobilization, and Force Structure panel
  - Erik also presented his MS entitled "Permanent War, Permanent Peace: Vanishing Cycles of Mobilization and Demobilization"
- Erik participated in the Roundtable on Rob Trager's Book, "Diplomacy: Communication and the Origins of International Order"
- Erik was a discussant in the Domestic Power of Rules in Conflict and Security panel
- Erik was a discussant at the Economics and Security panel
- Erik chaired the Sovereignty, Geopolitics, and Power Projection panel
  - Jack and Shannon presented their MS "Explaining the Spurious Relationship between Trade and Conflict with Geopolitics"
  - Rex presented his draft MS "The Least-Cost Road Not Taken: Global Travel Costs and International Conflict"
  - Rex, Jack, Andres and Shannon presented "The Named Entities Project: A Unified Cross-Century Cataloging of Global Political Actors"
    - The team received full feedback and a better idea of what other scholars find interesting about these projects
    - Our team plans on turning these ideas into action items in our reframing
- Andres participated in the China and Use of Economic Sanctions panel, where he presented his MS "I Saw the Sign: Explaining Military Signaling"
- Andres participated in the China and the Use of Economic Sanctions panel, where he presented his MS current draft of ICB paper entitled "One if by land, and two, if by sea: Introducing a Dataset on the Domains of International Crisis Behavior"
  - Received feedback on ways to integrate the project with other scholars from USC and Duke working on a similar topic
  - Began discussions with the University of Maryland on completing the data project by resolving intercoder reliability issues
  - Next steps are to create a unified version of the data project that integrates all current version of the coding to begin analysis
  - Current draft of the paper will be revised to focus on the relationship between different domains of conflict and the outcome of those crises
Jon Lindsay completed the new revision of MS evaluating civil-military interdependence in the Chinese space program, together with 100pp. qualitative summary of Chinese sources
Jon Lindsay completed draft of "Why quantum computing will not destabilize international security: the political logic of cryptology"

March 2018

On 30 March 2018, Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay completed their chapter entitled "The Cyber Commitment Problem and the Destabilization of Nuclear Deterrence"
- This chapter is for an edited volume by Herb Lin and Amy Zegart of the Brookings Institute
On 30 March 2018, Patrick Hulme attended the 2018 SAIS Asia Conference: "Competing Visions for Asia's Future", at John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
- Patrick participated in the "China at the Center of the World Stage" panel
- Patrick presented a paper entitled "International Law with Chinese Characteristics"
- Patrick received positive feedback fo the paper's policy relevance and timeliness, and is in the process of revising his paper for submission as a journal article
On 26 March 2018, Andres Gannon was accepted with full funding to SWAMOS (Summer Workshop on Analysis of Military Operations and Strategy)
- Andres will visit Cornell University this summer to receive training on understanding military operations and strategy from academic and policymaking experts that can be applied to our research
On 21 March 2018, during a UCSD lab meeting, Rex Douglass, Shannon Carcelli, Jack Zhang, and Andres Gannon presented their ISA papers
- Rex presented his working paper entitled "The Least-Cost Road Not Taken: Global Travel Costs and Internaitonal Conflict"
  - This is a working paper that will include a data set
- Andres presented his paper on cruise missiles along with the data collection effort
  - Data on US cruise missile usage from 1991-2017 finished version 1
  - Andres was able to make adjustments to his paper and submitted his changes for presentation at the ISA conference in April 2018
  - Data on national military platforms is now complete for 2001-2014 for the 51 countries that fought during the ISAF war in Afghanistan. Data quality has been checked and initial write up was started
- Shannon and Jack presented their working paper: "Powerful, Proximate, and Potentially Threatening: Explaining Why States Arm and Project Power"
On 19 March 2018, Erik Gartzke briefed the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM) on "Deterrence Stations (Nature of Weaponry)" as part of the "Exploring the Development of Analytical Frameworks" process sponsored by the Office of the National Directorate of Intelligence (ONDI)
- This is a new collaboration between NASEM and the intelligence community designed to solicit information and insights from academia
- As part of the deterrence panel, Erik discussed ongoing research conducted at UCSD that focuses on how different military and non-military foreign policy tools affect deterrence outcomes
- Erik received feedback which will be included in the revisions to his manuscript
On 19 March 2018, Jon Lindsay, Jack Zhang, Rex Douglass, and Patrick Hulme attended the "Bridging Asia Conference" at USC
- This workshop emphasized mentoring the next generation of scholars of American grand strategy and East Asia, and was intended to link USC scholars and graduate students within the wider grand strategy community and address key issues in America's relationship with Asia. A mix of scholarly and policy papers were presented, with sessions also specifically dedicated to mentoring your scholars about having both policy and scholarly relevance.
- Jack Zhang presented his paper entitled "Can Trade Prevent Conflict with China? Trade Interdependence and Chinese Foreign Policy"
  - Jack received helpful feedback from Victor Cha and Richard Betts (the assigned discussants)
  - The paper was well received by workshop participants, and Jack is in the process of revising his paper for submission as a journal article
On 14 March 2018, Andres Gannon reached the semifinals of the UCSD Grand Slam competition presenting our work on military force structure using the IISS data
- This gave Andres an opportunity to practice conveying the innovations of his research to a lay audience of non-political scientists and non-academics
On 7 March 2018, Jack Zhang presented the working paper during a UCSD lab meeting
- This is a working paper form the Named Entities data set our team is creating here at UCSD

February 2018

GSR’s Jack Zhang and Shannon Carcelli accepted postdoc positions at the Niehaus Center for Globalization and Governance (NCGG) at Princeton University.
- Jack and Shannon will work with Helen V. Milner, B. C. Forbes Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University
- Shannon postpone her position as Assistant Professor of American Foreign Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park, until the spring of 2019
On 16 February 2018, Jon Lindsay attended a conference on quantum computing communication and intelligence at the University of Sydney, Australia
- Jon presented "The Implications of Quantum Cryptography for International Security”
On 12 February 2018, Jon Lindsay participated in a working group at the Australian National University
- Jon Met with members of the National Security College, to discuss the future of cybersecurity research
On 24 February 2018, Erik Gartzke attended the Naval Postgraduate School's (NPS) Regional Security Education Program (RSEP)
- Erik gave a presentation on Cyber myths and realities
- Over 200 mid-career military officers were in attendance
On 27 February 2018, Erik Gartzke spoke at the Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford
- Erik’s presented a talk entitled “Emerging Threats”
On 28 February 2018, During a UCSD lab meeting, GSR Andres Gannon presented updates on the ICB covert project
- This project will be presented at ISA in March 2018, in San Francisco, CA
On 21 February, during a UCSD lab meeting, Rex Douglass presented updates on the “Named Entities Project”
On 14 February 2018, during a UCSD Lab meeting, GSR Andres Gannon presented updates on the ICB covert project, IISS and cruise missiles
On 15 February 2018, Erik Gartzke participated in an interview with the local station KPBS, which appeared on the radio and on television in San Diego.
- Erik addressed the issue of nuclear weapons associated with the new NPR being deployed in SD County.
- Erik suggested that this was possible but not likely (most credible are B61s aboard carriers stationed in San Diego, but with the weapons themselves located at Seal Beach in LA).
- Erik sought to highlight the issue of substitution that comes along with tactical nukes; buying more tactical nukes means that the US can extend its conventional capabilities further internationally, banking on the deterrent effect of tactical nukes in places where we are clearly unwilling to escalate to strategic nuclear war.
- Link to interview: http://www.kpbs.org/news/2018/feb/16/trump-policy-spotlights-san-diegos-nuclear-past/
On 7 February 2018, Erik Gartzke hosted Torrey Froscher at the National Security Policy Speaker Series at UCSD.
- Torrey Presented on the nuclear history and policy engagement between the United States and North Korea spanning from 1994-2006
- Link to Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vkVRaH3kvmc&feature=youtu.be

January 2018

Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay’s chapter “Coercion through Cyberspace: The Stability-Instability Paradox Revisited was published in the Greenhill & Krause edited volume.
- Lindsay, Jon R., and Erik Gartzke. “Coercion through Cyberspace: The Stability-Instability Paradox Revisited.” In Coercion: The Power to Hurt in International Politics, edited by Kelly M. Greenhill and Peter Krause, 179–203. New York: Oxford University Press, 2018.
GSR Jack Zhang completed a literature review for the name entities project and wrote a memo about the codebook we plan to develop for the project
- Jack continued to draft the conference paper for ISA 2018, on the named entities project entitled "The Named Entities Project: A Unified Cross-Century Cataloging of Global Political Actors"
Rex Douglass, Shannon Carcelli, and Andres Gannon and with the assistance of undergraduate coders, have completed wave 1 of the IISS coding project.
- This involves gathering data on military platforms owned by each country involved in ISAF from 2001-2014
- This will serve as a test case for the value and validity of the broader dataset and helped develop the code used for large-scale data extraction
Andres Gannon has continued progress on the joint gray zone paper
- The final draft is near completion after incorporating comments from DIDG teleconference presentation given in December 2017
GSR Shannon Carcelli was hired as an Assistant Professor of American Foreign Policy at the University of Maryland, College Park
- She will begin the fall of 2018
On 24 January, Rex Douglas presented his work on how to measure power projection.
- This work will be followed by data and a manuscript

December 2017

On 5 December 2017, Erik Gartzke participated in an SMA STRATCOM Academic Alliance Speaker Session
- Erik’s talk was entitled Myths (and Truths?) About Cyberwar which discussed concerns about cyber insecurity. Policymakers should think cross-domain and strategically about cyber
- This talk had over 92 dial-ins which is the highest number of participants in the speaker series
On 12 December 2017, Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay met with Michael Nacht, Peter Barnes and Braden Soper to discuss the modeling work for the CDD project
- Braden and Peter presented the final version of the LLNL Technical Report on Thermonuclear Cyberwar
- The CDD team discussed recommendations for edits, including differentiating from the left of launch problem and longer term temporal effects of cyber conflict on deterrence.
We are exploring possible outlets for publication
On 15 December 2017, Erik Gartzke, Andres Gannon and Jon Lindsay presented their joint paper entitled "After Deterrence: Explaining Conflict Short of War, to the Digital Issues Discussion Group (DIDG)
- The team received positive feedback from other academics and will continue to make edits for an early 2018 submission to the International Security Journal
15 December 2017, marked the due date for the revisions for the edited volume chapters
- Jon Lindsay has been reviewing individual chapters and will provide feedback to each author
- Once all chapters have went through final edits, they will be submitted to Oxford University Press as a final submission
On 7-9 December 2017, Erik Gartzke attended the Stanford Emerging Technologies Conference in Palo Alto, CA.
- The first day of the meeting consisted of a public conference that included many notables, including Secretary William J. Perry and Raj Shah, Managing Partner of DIUx.
The subject of the meeting was defense innovation. Particular attention was given to the third offset strategy.
Professor Gartzke presented work on the role of military automation in establishing new deterrence dynamics.
- On the second day of the conference, key participants met in closed session for an intensive round of feedback on their work with the intention of preparing the manuscripts for a special submission of articles to a major academic journal.
- Professor Gartzke’s paper has been solicited for the special issue submission.
On 13 December 2017, UCSD Professor Jesse Driscoll presented his draft manuscript entitled “The (Limited) Effect of Information Warfare.”
- This paper outlined Russia’s engagement in information warfare and mapped behavior through social media
- The UCSD lab team received
On 12-14 December 2017, Erik Gartzke attended the workshop “Applying Lessons Learned from China to Understand How Other Countries Become Military Technological and Industrial Powers.”
- Erik discussed research on cyber security with Emily Goldman and recommended several sources for emerging research on the topic.
- Participants included Andrew Ross, Tom Mehnken, Eugene Gholz.

November 2017

Jon Lindsay attended the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories Multi-domain TTX.
Jon met with Braden Soper from the LLNL team to discuss the modeling work on the Thermonuclear Cyberwar publication
Braden plans on completing the draft by December 2017 and presenting it to the rest of the CDD team
- On 2-4 November 2017, Andres Gannon visited Arizona State University to attend the Peace science Society International PSSI. Andres presented a poster that outlined Signaling and Leading Indicators of Conflict
- On 17 November 2017, Erik Gartzke hosted Paul Stares from the Council on Foreign Relation to present to CDD team and other UCSD academics.
Paul gave a talk entitled “America's Next War and How to Prevent it”
Paul addressed potential National Security crises such as North Korea over its nuclear developments, China over South/East China Sea, Russia over Ukraine/E. Europe, the endgame in Syria and Afghanistan and growing tensions with Iran and introduced a guide to preventive action for U.S. policymakers

October 2017

On 30 October 2017, Jon Lindsay delivered editorial directions for revisions to CDD volume authors, following acceptance of the project by Oxford University Press
On 24-25 October 2017, Jon Lindsay traveled to the Lawrence Livermore National Laborator
- Jon met with Braden Soper at the LLNL and discussed the modeling projects on the Thermonuclear Cyberwar article
- Jon participated in LLNL Multi-Domain Deterrence Workshop, applying cross-domain concepts to a North Korea escalation exercise
On 24 October 2017, Erik Gartzke and Rex Douglas traveled to Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia
- During this trip Erik and Rex met with USN Patrol Boat Commander and other experts from King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) to assess cross-domain operations in the Middle East
On 13 October 2017, Erik Gartzke participated in an SMA teleconference on cyber cross domain
On 17-18 October 2017, Erik Gartzke gave a talk during a visit to Georgia Tech (Atlanta).
- Erik presented on cyber war and its cross domain aspects
On 20 October 2017, Jon Lindsay participated in a UCSD conference, "Trump in Asia: A One-Year Retrospective"
On 17 October 2017, the UCSD CDD team attended the National Security Policy Speaker Series at UCSD
- Henry Sokolski gave a talk entitled “How Peaceful Might East Asia's Civil Nuclear Programs Be?” Henry discussed how easy or difficult it would be for Japan and South Korea to exploit their civilian nuclear infrastructure to make bombs, and how might China react and what might it do to bolster its nuclear capabilities

September 2017

Shannon Carcelli and Erik Gartzke’s deterrence theory research entitled “The Diversification of Deterrence: New Data and Novel Realities” was published in the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Quantitative IR
Jon Lindsay’s article "Restrained by design: the political economy of cybersecurity" appeared in Digital Policy, Regulation and Governance Journal, Vol. 19 Issue: 6, pp.493-514
- This paper combines concepts from international relations theory and new institutional economics to understand cyberspace as a complex global institution with contracts embodied in both software code and human practice.
- It argues that cyber protocols depend on institutional cooperation, which creates incentives for threat actors to restrain the severity of their activity in order to maintain the possibility for future exploitation.
On 3 September 2017, Erik Gartzke, Peter Schram and Jack Zhang attended the American Political science Association Annual Meeting
- Erik Gartzke participated in the following panels as a Presenter, Chair, and discussant
- International Security: Nuclear Weapons and Coercive Diplomacy
- International Security: Natural Resources and Interstate conflicts – What is the Relationship?
- International Security: Risky Business: International Politics, Diplomacy, and Secrecy
- Jiakun Zhang presented his paper, UC San Diego entitled “Trade Interdependence and Chinese Uses of Economic and Military Coercion”
- Jack received valuable feedback from panelists who are experts on trade and conflict in Asia that will help improve the manuscript for eventual publication
- Peter Schram presented his modeling work entitled "Models of Grey Zone Conflict" for the Models of international conflict panel
On 13 September, during a UCSD lab meeting, Andres Gannon presented an update on several CDD projects
- For the Named Entities Project, he has started work on coding civil war events and actors from 1800-present
- For his Research entitled "Cruisin' to Victory: The Effects of US Cruise Missile Strikes Since the Gulf War", he has completed the first wave of data collection on US cruise missile operations
- For his research entitled "After Deterrence: Explaining Conflict Short of War," he has started empirical research on Russian cyber-attacks for the case studies portion of the paper
On 13 September Erik Gartzke gave a presentation at UCSD for the Chancellor’s Associates colloquium
- Erik Presented “How Drones and Cyberspace will Shape the Future of World Affairs”

August 2017

On 30 August 2017, Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay attended the APSA conference.
- Jon and Erik participated in the panel titled “Do Conditions in the World Today Necessitate a Grand Strategy of Primacy, or Can Realism and Restraint Make Us Safer?”
On 28 August Jon Lindsay’s article titled “Target Practice: Counterterrorism and the Amplification of Data Friction” was accepted for publication by Science, Technology, & Human Values, (Forthcoming).
- This article appears in a special issue on military tracking technologies in one of the top journals in the STS (Science and Technology Studies) field. It examines organizational responses to complexity in information-intensive warfare, drawing on fieldwork with a US Special Operations Task Force. It argues that cyber technologies can end up amplifying organizational biases rather than "lifting the fog of war" as often assumed in network-centric and third-offset doctrine.
On 22 August 2017, Erik Gartzke’s cc-authored article entitled “Social Scientific Analysis of Nuclear Weapons: Past Scholarly Successes, Contemporary Challenges, and Future Research Opportunities” was published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution.
On 9 August 2017, Jack Zhang gave a presentation on Trade Interdependence and Chinese Uses of Economic and Military Coercion during a UCSD lab meeting.
- This paper brings insights from literature on complex interdependence into policy discussion on cyber and space deterrence.
On 24-26 August 2017, our team held the 2017 Annual CDD Workshop at UCSF. This workshop established important information ranging from the “gray zone” to the weaponization of international law. With such newfound knowledge gained by the CDD team, we hope that we can further our studies and apply our findings to future policies or actions taken in times of crisis. Here are some notable events from the workship:
- Erik Gartzke presented the CDD project overview
- Jon Lindsay presented his article Shifting the Fog of War
  - This work will address how practitioners produce reliable representations of the world so that they can know and influence it, under what conditions does representational practice improve organizational performance, and when does it produce logistical delays, targeting errors, unintended casualties, or mission failure, and finally, what, ultimately, are the implications for strategy and policy of the informational turn in military practice.
- Rex Douglass presented the CDD Data Projects and Political Geography
- Braden Soper Presented Formal Models and Simulations of CDD
  - Braden presented a simple formal game theoretic model motivated by Erik and Jon’s paper entitled “Thermonuclear Cyberwar, Journal of Cybersecurity.”
  - Braden’s model laid out Left-of-Launch (LOL) capabilities with probabilities of a successful LOL attack.

July 2017

On 6 July 2017, CAPT Zerr of SOCOM attended a CDD lab meeting to discuss our work on CDD and Gray zone conflict.
- UCSD team presented work on cross-domain deterrence and on gray zone conflict.
- CAPT Zerr has been briefed on our project from its inception and continues to engage and ask informed questions on CDD strategies.
- CAPT Zer continues to show interest in our research and has and has forwarded his impressions to his replacement at SOCOM and our slides to other CYBERCOM subject matter experts so they can provide feedback to our working papers.
On 26-27 July 2017, Erik Gartzke and Michael Nacht were featured speakers at the U.S. Strategic Command’s Deterrence and Assurance Conference in Omaha, NE.
- Erik spoke on the effects of redline versus ambiguous deterrent thresholds, relating them to cross-domain deterrence.
  - Domains and military capabilities/platforms differ in their ability to signal (warn), fight (win) and minimize costs. These varying attributes of platforms and domains mean that the “ingredients” in conducting deterrence change its nature and likely effects.
- Erik spoke with many strategic deterrence practitioners and experts, fulfilling the requirement under Minerva funding of outreach to the military and civilian defense community. He received the STRATCOM Commander’s challenge coin from General Hyten.
  - Erik and Michael created contacts with representatives of STRATCOM who are interested in having a briefing on some of the project’s current research later this fall or early spring.
- Erik and Michael met with personnel from other agencies such as the NSA and DARPA. They also met with leading academic deterrence experts including Adam Stulberg (Georgia Tech) and Matt Kroenig (Georgetown).
- Erik and Michael took the opportunity to review their respective research efforts and other progress on the grant and to discuss plans or the final year of the project.
On 1-2 July 2017, Erik Gartzke participated in the Pacific International Politics Conference: Erik Gartzke (co-organizer of PIPc) presented research on the role of nuclear force structures in prompting deterrence or generating instability. Using new data coded by the author and others, we find that platform diversification is a significant determinant of deterrence success. The ratio of nuclear warheads to platforms is also significant for conventional dispute initiation. A high ratio of warheads to platforms (as is the case with MIRVed warheads) is associated with increased conventional dispute initiation. The meeting brought together cutting edge researchers from around the Pacific rim with a focus on security and conflict studies. This group is an important resource and benefit to U.S. allies in the region. By promoting their work and interaction, we strengthen the knowledge base available to advise and inform leaders and officials in allied countries. Given the security concerns of these countries, and the close ties between government and academia in Asian nations, the meeting enriches U.S. efforts to mobilize elite and public opinion concerning national security, informs the decision making process governing defense, and improves the quality of interaction among allied nations.
On 5 July 2017, Members of the CDD team met with Christopher Costello, AbD. Mr. Costello is a reserve naval officer and PhD history student at UCSD.
- Christopher is working with the CDD team to try and uncover detailed data on the location of naval platforms as a way of measuring the effects of power projection, a component of the deterrent effect of military power.
On 6 July 2017, Dani Nedal (Georgetown) presented his work on geography and nuclear deterrence at the CDD lab meeting.
- Nedal is an AbD researcher currently on a postdoc at Yale University. He is an expert on political geography. Members of the CDD group built on their understanding of political geography and asked numerous questions.
On 24 July 2017, Erik Gartzke met with Bethany Goldblum, director of the Public Policy and Nuclear Threat program.
- Erik updated Bethany on our activities and discussed the evolution of research generally on new nuclear security issues. Bethany would like to review research from the CDD project and provide feedback on the team’s research.

June 2017

Jon Lindsay was informed by the OUP that the Cross-domain deterrence edited Volume has received a positive review and is awaiting further feedback
Erik Gartzke attended Academic Exchange on 3-5 June 2017.
- The AE meeting brought together the foremost experts on Middle Eastern security policy to discuss the current state of conditions in Israel and the Region. Given important differences between Israeli and U.S. notions of deterrence, the meeting was very informative.
- With a more kinetic and dynamic conception of deterrence, Israeli policy makers conduct operations designed to operate across domains with considerable regularity.
- Dr. Gartzke met with more than two dozen experts on Middle East security policy and strategy to better understand how deterrence operates in the region.
On 20-22 June 2017, Erik Gartzke was a featured speaker at Cyber Endeavor, the largest government sponsored meeting of cyber security practitioners and experts, at Carnegie Mellon University.
- Dr. Gartzke talked about the role of cross-domain deterrence in cyber security. He also discussed the underpinnings of cyber conflict and reviewed available analytical work on the causes of cyberwar.
- During the meeting, he met with groups and representatives of a number of government agencies and offices, including the NSA, CYBERCOM, NDU and NPS. Erik Gartzke met with Bob Vince of LLNL to start the security clearance process.
On 23-24 June 2017, Erik Gartzke met with collaborator Koji Kagotani to discuss and work on research related to extended conventional deterrence.
- This research uses statistical data to show the effect of different aspects of deterrence. We find that the proportion of forces placed on an ally’s soil is the only significant predictor of deterrence success. The absolute quantity of forces in not significant. The proportion of forces placed offshore actually correlates with deterrence failure. This is because these forces increase uncertainty about the defender’s (US) intent. Rather than just shifting the local balance of power, and increasing discretion, they also increase variability, leading adversaries more often to underestimate US resolve. We are preparing this work for submission to major journals.
On 25 June 2017, Erik Gartzke met with Atsushi Tago, a major expert on Japanese public opinion regarding foreign military policy to discuss deterrence and other issues.
On 26 June 2017, Erik Gartzke gave a talk at Kobe University concerning the role of naval power in influence and deterrence.
- Dr. Gartzke met with students and others concerning this work and received feedback from a Japanese perspective on the impact of current security concerns and the US-Japan alliance.
On 30 June 2017, Erik Gartzke attended the East Asian Security Workshop.
- Erik Gartzke presented the research on conventional deterrence and received feedback from expert scholars
On 14-17 June 2017, Andres Gannon attended the 2017 Political Networks Conference and Workshop at Ohio State University.
- Andres presented “An Empirical Approach to Defining Military Domains" which looks at world military technologies and how they explain variation in national military capacity. Presentation was award Honorable Mention for the poster session of the conference.
- This conference gave an opportunity for our research to get valuable feedback from academic experts and to partake in workshops to improve technical training on skills needed to continue the project. Workshops included sessions with academic experts on network analysis and exponential random graph models which will be used in future iterations of the project.
On 21-22 June 2017, Andres Gannon attended the CSIS PONI Conference in Livermore, CA.
- Andres Presented "Cross-Domain Threats and the Escalation of International Crises in East Asia."
- Introduced our work to policymakers who oversee US nuclear policy.
- Andres received tours of US nuclear facilities at the Lawrence Livermore Nuclear Laboratory which provided technical knowledge that will assist future research.
On 7 June 2017, Andres Gannon presented a paper on Cruise missiles entitled "Cruisin’ to Victory: The Effects of US Cruise Missile Strikes Since the Gulf War."
- This paper introduces new, fine-grained data about US cruise missile usage since the Gulf War to analyze its effect on the duration and outcome of conflict, relationship to other military instruments used during conflict, and variation in how cruise missiles are operationalized at the theater level.
- Data collection has been done for 11 of 14 US military operations since 1991.

May 2017

On 15 May 2017, Erik Gartzke, Shannon Carcelli, J. Andres Gannon, and Jiakun Jack Zhang received positive feedback from their chapter entitled “Signaling in Foreign Policy” for the edited volume by Cameron Thies, ed. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Forthcoming.
- The reviews were exceedingly positive, and there was no need for revisions.
  - Comments from a reviewer “provides one of the best reviews and synthetic discussions of the signaling literature that I have seen. The authors should be commended for putting together such an authoritative and clear overview and distillation of both foundational research on signaling as well as the latest approaches and advances in this vein.”
On 17 May 2017, Erik Gartzke was contacted by Michael Powell, of STRATCOM and invited to the Strategic Deterrence Symposium.
- On 26 July 2017, Erik will serve as a panelist on the Examining the implications of seemingly conflicting approaches across all domains-thresholds & redlines vs. ambiguity?” panel.
On 12 May 2017, Erik Gartzke and Matthew Kroenig Revise and resubmitted "Social Scientific Analysis of Nuclear Weapons: Past Successes, Contemporary Challenges, and Future Opportunities" to the Journal of Conflict Resolution (forthcoming).
- Scholars interested in researching nuclear security are increasingly discouraged by a fear that the “important questions” have already been answered and by recent studies which delineate serious limits to casual inference in this field. While recognizing these challenges, this article argues in contrast that there remain ample opportunities to conduct innovative scholarship on questions of nuclear security.
On 8 May 2017, Erik Gartzke and Paul Poast submitted a revised version of “Empirically Assessing the Bargaining Theory of War: Potential and Challenges.” in William Thompson, ed. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Empirical International Relations Theory, Oxford.
- This was accepted on May 15 to the Oxford University Press.
- This paper argues that further progress for the bargaining model, both among adherents and in the larger research community, depends increasingly on empirical testing of new theoretical implications and, increasingly, the model’s core claims.
On 28 May 2017, our research team updated our Named Entities Project by finishing the coding for the COW state membership data, and the Interstate wars conflict and participant data.
- Undergraduate coders have begun coding for the Geacron dataset, which is still a work in progress.

April 2017

On 16 April 2017, Erik Gartzke submitted an editorial entitled “Donald Trump’s Surprising Defense of International Norms” to Lawfare. https://www.lawfareblog.com/donald-trumps-surprising-defense-international-norms
On 14 April 2017, Erik Gartzke, Shannon Carcelli, J. Andres Gannon, and Jiakun Jack Zhang submitted their chapter entitled “Signaling in Foreign Policy” for the edited volume by Cameron Thies, ed. The Oxford Encyclopedia of Foreign Policy Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Forthcoming.
On 17 April 2017, Erik Gartzke along with James Igoe Walsh submitted “The Drawbacks of Drones: The Effects of UAVs on Escalation and Instability in Pakistan."
On 14 April 2017, Erik Gartzke, Rex Douglass, and Jon R. Lindsay submitted their paper entitled “The Influence of Seapower on Politics: Domain- and Platform-Specific Attributes of Material Capabilities."
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay’s publication entitled “Weaving Tangled Webs: Offense, Defense, and Deception in Cyberspace,” received a positive review in the International Security Studies Forum: https://issforum.org/articlereviews/75-cyberspace
On 17 April 2017, J5 from STRATCOM, General Crosier attended a UCSD lab meeting.
- Gen Crosier discussed STRATCOM's responsibilities, missions, and deterrence & assurance challenges, signaling, and WMD’s.
  - The research team discussed recent events in N. Korea and gained insight on signaling and WMD’s.
On 7 April 2017, Andres Gannon, attended the 10th Annual Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) Conference, Joint Base Andrews, MD.
- Andres Presented “The Role of Deterrence in (Re)defining the Gray Zone”
  - Andres learned about policymakers' perspectives on gray zone conflict.
  - Andres received feedback on his poster presentation that helped refine our newly developed definition of gray zone conflict.
On 17 April 2017, Peter Schram attended a political science workshop at Vanderbilt University and presented his working paper entitled “Hassling”
- This paper is a product of the modeling work at UCSD for the Minerva Project.
- Peter was given feedback to help his work on a proposition describing when it is possible to shift from an equilibrium with hassling to a peaceful equilibrium without hassling.
On 6-8 April 2017, Andres Gannon and Erik Gartzke attended the West Coast International Relations of Asia Conference III at UCLA.
- Andres presented “Signaling and Leading Indicators of Crisis”
  - Andres received feedback on the first draft of the project involving the new CDD ICB dataset.
  - Andres was able to connect our project on cross-domain deterrence to the East Asian context through feedback from conversations with area specialists
On April 21 2017, Erik Gartzke attended a Workshop on Economic Interdependence and War held by the Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies (GPACS) at the University of California, Irvine.
- Erik presented “Global Trade and Interstate Conflict: The Indirect Origins of Commercial Peace.”
On 19 April 2017, Andres Gannon presented The Role of Deterrence in (Re)defining the Gray Zone” poster during a UCSD lab meeting.
- Andres Received feedback from the research team and made changes prior to him presenting at the SMA conference.
On 24 April 2017, Jon Lindsay gave a talk entitled “Is Cyberwar Coming?" at Southern Methodist University in Dallas.
On 22 April, University of Toronto graduate student Jinhui Jiao, completed a draft of the study of the Chinese space program.
- This paper outlines the perceptions and intentions of Chinas space program.

March 2017

On 24 March 2017, Peter Schram participated in the SOCOM SMA Gray Zone Speaker Series Teleconference.
- Peter presented "Lessons from Modelling Gray Zone Conflict."
On 26 March 2017, Jon Lindsay attended The International Security Studies Forum.
- Jon contributed an Essay entitled “The Other Attribution Problem” https://issforum.org/roundtables/policy/1-7-russia#Essay_by_Jon_R_Lindsay_University_of_Toronto
On 23-24 March 2017, GSR Andres Gannon attended the 10^th Annual Homeland Defense & Security Education Summit, in Arlington, VA.
- Andres Presented “Signaling and Leading Indicators of Crisis” and discussed Military Mobilization as a Leading Indicator of Conflict https://www.uapi.us/resources/uploads/2016/08/HDSES-Master-Agenda_03_09.pdf
On 22 March 2017, GSR Andres Gannon presented work on gray zone conflict entitled “After Deterrence: Explaining Conflict Short of War”during a UCSD lab meeting.

February 2017

On 14 February 2017 Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay’s paper entitled: “Thermonuclear Cyberwar” was published in the Journal of Cybersecurity: https://academic.oup.com/cybersecurity/article/2996537/Thermonuclear
Erik Gartzke attended the International Studies Association Conference (ISA) in Baltimore Maryland.
- Erik was a chair and discussant on the "US Grand Strategy and Force Posture" panel.
- Erik was a chair on the "Experiments in Security Studies" panel.
- Erik was a participant in the “The Enduring Relevance Question in Contemporary International Relations” roundtable.
- Erik presented “No Humans Were Harmed in the Making of this War: On the Nature and Consequences of Automated Combat” to the Military Technologies in 21st Century International Security: Causes, Consequences and Crises” panel.
- Erik presented “Deployments as Substitutes: Nuclear versus Conventional Military Deployments” to the “Emerging Research in Military Deployments and Force Projection panel.
Jon Lindsay attended the International Studies Association Conference (ISA) in Baltimore Maryland.
- Jon was a discussant on the “Opening the Black Box of Cyber-Operations: A New Paradigm for Understanding Cyber-Enabled Conflict and International Relations” panel.
- Jon was a participant in the “Lessons from the Iraq Surge: 10 Years Later” roundtable.
- Jon was a participant in the “Strategy, Skepticism, and the Cyberwarfare Debate” roundtable.
On 21 February 2017, Rex Douglas presented a Power Projection at Conference, Baltimore, MD.
- Rex presented Statistical analysis and replication for effects of naval power on power for a projection research article.
On 1 February 2017, GSR Andres Gannon presented work on gray zone conflict entitled “After Deterrence: Explaining Conflict Short of War” during a UCSD lab meeting.
On 28 February 2017, Erik Gartzke Gave a talk to the UCSD Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI).
- Erik presented “Why do they (Still) Hate Us? The Origins of Instability in the Twentieth Century.”

January 2017

Jon Lindsay submitted revised proofs for Gartzke and Lindsay, "Thermonuclear Cyberwar," Journal of Cybersecurity (forthcoming).
On 29 January 2017, Jon Lindsay completed a draft chapter on "Cyber Espionage" for the Handbook on Cyber Security, ed. Paul Cornish (Oxford, forthcoming).
- This chapter argues that cybersecurity must be interpreted through the lens of intelligence and examines the problem of targeting, collection, analysis, covert action, and counterintelligence.
On 12 January 2017, Erik Gartzke attended the Cybersecurity of Critical Infrastructure Summit at Texas A&M University.
- Erik Presented the research teams work entitled “National Security Cyber Strategy” http://cpass.ucsd.edu/_files/tamu_cyber_01122017.pdf
Andres Gannon’s paper entitled “Leading Indicators of Crises” was accepted for presentation at the 10^th Anniversary Homeland Defense & Security Education Summit, 23-24 March 2017.
- This paper is a product of the ICB data that was collected during the add-on Minerva grant.
On 24 January 2017, Jon Lindsay was a guest on The Agenda, a TV news show in Canada, for an episode on cyber conflict: http://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/confronting-cyber-conflict
Andres Gannon submitted the abstract for "Signaling and Leading Indicators of Crisis" to the 6th Annual UCLA History Graduate Student Association Conference.
Peter Schram completed mathematical appendix for "Models of Grey Zone Conflict" paper- this working paper is being circulated to UCSD, Stanford, and Princeton scholars
On 25 January 2017, Peter Schram presented modeling slides during a UCSD lab meeting. This formal modelling can answer two related questions:
- Why states deploy some systems over others?
- Why states develop some systems over others?

December 2016

Erik Gartzke and Shannon Carcelli submitted their manuscript “Blast from the Past: Revitalizing and Diversifying Deterrence Theory,” to the Journal of Global Security Studies.
On 5 December 2016, Jon Lindsay participated in a Roundtable at the International Security Studies Forum to discuss “Cyber War Versus Cyber Realities: Cyber Conflict in the International System.” https://issforum.org/roundtables/9-7-cyber#Review_by_Jon_Lindsay_University_of_Toronto
Erik Gartzke contributed to the Virtual Think Tank (ViTTa) analysis conducted as part of the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) gray zone effort in support of United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM).
- Erik gave a presentation on Gray zone conflict and provided feedback on other presentations.
- Erik’s presentation and feedback was used to assist SMA in redefining Gray Zone Conflict.
Erik Gartzke, Shannon Carcelli, Andres Gannon, and Jack Zhang have completed an outline and have started drafting a foreign policy chapter, with the working title "Signaling and Leading Indicators of Crises," which involves signaling.
On 2 December 2016, Andres Gannon presented "The Role of Deterrence in (Re)defining the Gray Zone," during a UCSD lab meeting.
- This is a joint paper by Erik Gartzke, J Andres Gannon, and Jon Lindsay.
On 7 December 2016, Rex Douglass and Andres Gannon presented their work on “Defining Military Domains: An Empirical Approach" during a UCSD lab meeting.
- This paper is a product of the ICB data that was collected during the add-on Minerva grant.
Peter Schram has developed a game theory model of the winning vs warning phenomena.
- This work is aimed to help identify when and where states select technologies that are better at signaling capacity versus technologies that are better at winning in war.

November 2016

Jon Lindsay’s paper "Target Practice: Constructing Counterterrorism in Iraq, 2007-2008" was submitted for review by invitation of Science, Technology, and Human Values
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay’s paper entitled "Thermonuclear Cyberwar" has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Cybersecurity
On 15-16 November 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke participated in a CDD Table Top Exercise at LLNL
- Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke played in a Baltic scenario with a gray zone and a combat phase to think through CDD responses
- Jon Lindsay played the president of one of the Blue Teams. Erik Gartzke acted as the "Whole of Government" team on the other Blue Team. The idea of having two blue teams run the exercise concurrently usefully highlighted the differences of opinion and assumption that emerge in a confusing CDD crisis environment
On 30 November 2016, Jon Lindsay hosted a round table discussion for the NATO Association of Canada entitled "Combat and Technology: A Roundtable Discussion with Dr. Jon Lindsay" http://natoassociation.ca/combat-and-technology-a-roundtable-discussion-with-dr-jon-lindsay/
On 30 November 2016, Rex Douglass presented work based on the Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) data set during a UCSD lab meeting
On 23 November 2016, Shannon Carcelli presented “Blast from the Past: Revitalizing and Diversifying Deterrence Theory” during a UCSD lab meeting
On 22 November 2016, Jon Lindsay gave a lecture for U of Toronto Department of Philosophy on "Epistemic Prosthetics: Precision Weapons and Course Knowledge"
On 14 November 2016, Jon Lindsay participated as a panelist at the Modern war studies conference entitled “Reassessing Deterrence in the 21st Century” at West Point US Military Academy
On 10 November 2016, Erik Gartzke visited Columbia University for a Bridging the Gap: Cyber Conflict Workshop. The main emphasis of this workshop was on creating a community of researchers in the area of cyber conflict in political science
On 9 November 2016, Erik Gartzke met with Charles Glaser, Steven Biddle and Caitlin Talmadge to discuss the role of leadership (Trump election) in cross-domain deterrence

October 2016

On 26 October 2016, Jon Lindsay participated as a speaker at the Einaudi Center’s Distinguished Speaker Series talks on international aspects of the cybersecurity challenge at Cornell University
Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: Cybersecurity and the Attenuation of War": http://www.cornell.edu/video/jon-lindsay-cybersecurity-attenuation-of-war
Peter Schram completed a draft of his modeling work entitled “Grey Zone Conflict and Hassling” A new theory section has been added complete with discussion on how grey zone conflict can demonstrate successful or unsuccessful deterrence. This draft is in circulation and gathering feedback.
On 24 October, Erik Gartzke gave a talk at Palomar College on new models of deterrence entitled “Deterring Putin, Xi and Isis"
On 20-23 October 2016, Erik Gartzke cohosted a Peace Science Society International (PSSI) Workshop at University of Notre Dame entitled Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory https://sites.psu.edu/pssi/files/2016/01/PSS_2016_program-1rq5ris.pdf
On 5 October 2016, Erik Gartzke gave a talk to the Military Veterans in Political Science (MVIPS) organization on Deterrence
On 5 October 2016, Jon Lindsay participated as an invited speaker for MIT’s Center for International Studies, and presented "Restrained by Design: Cybersecurity and the Attenuation of War"
On 11 October 2016, Jon Lindsay was a panelist at Atlantic Treaty Association (ATA) General Assembly, in Toronto CA
On 25 October 2016, Jon Lindsay was a panelist at “Cyber Resilience: A Holographic Perspective on Continuing Threats and Potential Solutions” hosted by the Mackenzie Institute at Massey College, U of Toronto

September 2016

Jon Lindsay completed a full draft of his book manuscript, “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control”. This Book includes case studies of military operations in several domains such as air defense, special operations, drone warfare, and cybersecurit

On 1-4 September 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke attended the American Political Science Association Annual Meetings in Philadelphia, PA
- Jon presented his joint chapter with Erik Gartzke “Cross-Domain Deterrence as a Practical Problem and a Theoretical Concept”
- Jon presented a summary of his book “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control”
- Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay participated in the “Deterrence and Coercion” panel, where they presented the introductory chapter for the CDD edited volume
- Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay participated in a roundtable discussion with Robert Jervis, Joshua Rovner, and Austin Carson on conflict in cyberspace
- Erik Gartzke presented his paper on military personnel recruitment and was a discussant on a trade and conflict panel

On 30 September 2016, Jon Lindsay hosted a manuscript workshop to discuss “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control”
Jacquelyn Schneider acknowledged the CDD conference, its investigators and the Minerva Initiative in her introduction
On 15 September 2016, Jiakun Jack Zhang attended the Freeman Chair in China Studies Seminar Series at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and presented “Is China an Exception to the Commercial Peace?”

Jon met with Janice Stein, Joshua Rovner, Risa Brooks, and Michael Horowitz to present and receive feedback

On 12 September 2016, Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, and Rex Douglass attended an IMAPS workshop with the Center for Applied Internet Data Analysis (CAIDA) at the San Diego Supercomputer Center to explore the feasibility of providing an empirical mapping of the “key terrain” of cyberspace
On 30 September 2016, Erik Gartzke presented “Deterrence in the 21st Century: New Technologies and Dynamics” to the National Intelligence Council
On 28 September, Peter Schram presented modeling work on Gray Zone Conflict during a UCSD lab meeting
On 23 September 2016, Jon Lindsay presented at a panel at the “Canadian Association for Security and Intelligence Studies” annual symposium entitled “The Cyber Challenge: Global Security Implications”
On 23 September 2016, GSR Andres Gannon (UCSD) presented his MCTL paper entitled “An Empirical Approach to Defining Domains” at the ISA West Conference
On 21 September 2016, GSR Andres Gannon presented his work on the MCTL paper entitled “An Empirical Approach to Defining Domains” during a UCSD lab meeting
On 14 September 2016, Professor Damon Coletta of the U.S Air Force Academy presented his work entitled “Courting Science: Securing the Foundation for a Second American Century”, during a UCSD lab meeting
2014 Annual CDD conference attendee Jacquelyn Schneider completed her work on digital warfare entitled “Digitally-Enabled Warfare: The Capability-Vulnerability Paradox.”https://s3.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/documents/CNASReport-DigitalWarfare-Final.pdf

August 2016

Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke completed a chapter on cyberspace entitled “Coercion through Cyberspace: The Stability-Instability Paradox Revisited”
- This chapter was submitted to Kelly M. Greenhill and Peter J. P. Krause to be added to their edited volume “The Power to Hurt: Coercion in Theory and in Practice”
- This edited volume will be submitted to the Oxford University Press
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke completed a chapter on cybersecurity entitled “Cybersecurity and Cross-Domain Deterrence: The Consequences of Complexity”
- This chapter was submitted to Damien T. Van Puyvelde and Aaron Brantley to be added to their edited volume entitled “National Security in Cyberspace”
- This edited volume will be submitted to Routledge
On 24 August 2016, Erik took part in a Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) Teleconference
- Erik Gartzke presented “The role of deterrence in Gray Zone conflict”
On 9 August 2016, Andres Gannon presented preliminary slides for the August 24th SMA Talk during a UCSD lab meeting
- GSR Andres Gannon submitted abstracts for the MCTL and gray zone papers to the ISAC-ISSS conference
On 16 August 2016, Jon Lindsay participated in a workshop on the cyber conflict in Ukraine at the University of Toronto
On 17 August 2016, GSR Shannon Carcelli presented her deterrence lit review during a UCSD lab meeting
- Shannon received feedback from the CDD team and will be sending edits to Erik Gartzke for additional comments and review

July 2016

Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke completed their draft introduction to the edited volume
- http://deterrence.ucsd.edu/_files/CDD_Intro_v2.pdf
On 18 July 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke Submitted their edited volume entitled “Cross Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Complexity” to the Oxford University Press for review
Jon Lindsay completed his book chapter entitled "Drones and the Mediation of War" for his book on Control Complexity
On 27 July 2016, Erik Gartzke attended the 2016 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium in La Vista, NE
Andres Gannon (UCSD, GSR) was invited to the ISA West Conference to present his research entitled “An Empirical Approach to Defining Domains”
On 13 July 2016, Rex Douglass presented the status of the ICB data coding project during a UCSD lab meeting. Rex anticipates the coding will be complete in early September then transitioning into the analyses process
On 13 July 2016. Shannon Carcelli presented her deterrence literature review during a UCSD lab meeting. Shannon anticipates this work will be submitted for review in late August
On 20 July 2016, Erik Gartzke presented material on Gray Zone Conflict during a UCSD lab meeting
On 27 July 2016, Graduate Student Researcher Jinhui Jiao, from the University of Toronto, presented research on space and national security in China during a UCSD lab meeting.

June 2016

Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay completed a revision of "Thermonuclear Cyberwar" and sent this to Herb Lin at Stanford who will be submitting it to the Journal of Cybersecurity for review for inclusion in a special issue on Offensive Cyber Operations
On 10 June 2016, Jon Lindsay presented his work on CDD and cybersecurity for the Defence Engagement Program in Ottawa
- CDD and Cybersecurity slides
On 20-22 June 2016, Erik Gartzke attended the European peace science conference hosted by the Network of European Peace Scientist (NEPS) in Milan, Italy
- Erik Chaired a panel on “Military Organization”
- Erik Presented “Drafting Disputes: Military Labor, Regime Type and Interstate Conflict”
On 23-25 June 2016, Erik Gartzke attended the 2016 Politics of International Relations Conference hosted by the Central and East European International Studies Association (CEEISA) in Ljubjana, Slovenia
- Erik was a discussant on the “Analyzing War and Warfare” Panel
- Erik was the Chair of the “ Political Economy of Security” Panel
Erik Gartzke participated in the 2016 East Asian Security Workshop which was held at Osaka university
- Erik Presented material on “Military Labor and Interstate Conflict”

May 2016

On 19-20 May 2016, Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay and Michael Nacht hosted a CDD workshop at George Washington University.
- Panel 1 “The Evolution and Future of Deterrence Theory”
  - Moderator: Michael Nacht
  - Panelists: Richard Betts, Morton Halperin, Robert Jervis, George Quester
- Panel 2 “The Utility of Deterrence in Practice”
  - Moderator: Jon Lindsay
  - Panelists: Francis Gavin, Charles Glaser, Avery Goldstein, Barry Posen
- Panel 3 “Update on Minerva Cross-Domain Deterrence Research”
  - Moderator: Erin Fitzgerald
  - Panelists: Erik Gartzke, Rex Douglass, Pat Schuster, Eva Uribe
- Panel 4 “The Resurgence of Great Power Politics”
  - Moderator: Erik Gartzke
  - Panelists: Eric Heginbotham, David Helvey, Olga Oliker, Jason Reinhardt
- Panel 5 “The Impact of Cyberspace, Space, and Biological Technologies”
  - Moderator: Jon Lindsay
  - Panelists: Benjamin Bahney, Daniel Gerstein, James Lewis, Martin Libicki
- Panel 6 “The Utility of Deterrence in Practice”
  - Moderator: Paul Nielan
  - Panelists: Joseph Pilat, Robert Vince, James Walsh, Nick Wright
- Panel 7 “Open Discussion: Implications for Deterrence Research”
  - Moderators: Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay, Michael Nacht
On 20 May 2016, Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke met with Tom Schelling, the Dean of deterrence theory.
- Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke outlined the work on the Minerva CDD project and received feedback and an invitation for future correspondence.
- Jon Lindsay and Gartzke briefed Tom Schelling on the CDDI2 workshop that took place 19-20 May 2016.
- Tom Schelling expressed interest and asked that we keep him apprised of developments in the project, and we anticipate sharing the edited volume with him once ready for review.
During a UCSD CDD lab meeting, Andres Gannon presented an update on his work involving the Militarily Critical Technologies List.
UCSD undergraduates completed the coding of ICB cases for the quarter. Rex Douglass and Clara Suong started reviewing the UCSD undergraduates work on coding ICB data.
Rex Douglass had a phone conference with David Quinn from U of Maryland.
- The Maryland team has coded 25% of the ICB cases.
- The Maryland coders will increase their effort over the summer.
Erik Gartzke hosted a data forecasting workshop at UCSD. The purpose of the workshop was to consider various social media outlets and user trends to help forecast violence in different regions.

April 2016

On 2 April 2016, Erik Gartzke visited the RAND Corporation. Erik Gartzke presented 2 papers on proper posture and how presence affects deterrence:
- "Trust in Tripwires: Military Deployments, Costly Signaling and the Impact of U.S. Force Posture Decisions on Extended General Deterrence Success in Japan.”
- "Being There: U.S. Force Posture, Offshore Balancing and Alliance Reliability”
Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: The Political Economy of Cybersecurity" at the U of Chicago Program in International Security Policy on 19 April 2016
Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: The Political Economy of Cybersecurity" at the Society for Military History Annual Meeting in Ottawa on 17 April 2016.
CDD volume is nearing completion for submission to OUP. RA Nicola Plummer (U of T) is copyediting the chapters from the edited volume.
The CDD project received a second human subject exemption from the UCSD IRB for the use of UCSD undergraduates who will be coding ICB data.
During a UCSD CDD lab meeting, GSR Andres Gannon presented his work on the Militarily Critical Technologies List (MCTL). Andres is currently analyzing the technology of each country and their capability to develop additional technologies through trade.
Rex Douglass and Clara Suong gave a training to a group of UCSD undergraduates on how to maneuver through the graphic user interface to code ICB cases.

March 2016

Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay attended the Stanford Cyber Policy Program Workshop on Strategic Dimensions of Offensive Cyber Operations on 3-4 March 2016.
- Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay presented their paper “Cyberwar in a Thermonuclear World"
Jon Lindsay gave a lecture on China and cyber at the Australian National University: http://nsc.anu.edu.au/seminars/public-seminars-2016/seminar-20160218.php
Jon Lindsay was a contributor on the ISSF Forum 13, entitled “Why Isn’t There More Scholarly Evaluation of U.S. Wars?” https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/113632/issf-forum-13-%E2%80%9Cwhy-isn%E2%80%99t-there-more-scholarly-evaluation-us-wars%E2%80%9D
Erik Gartzke, Jon Lindsay and Rex Douglass attended the International Studies Association conference in Atlanta, GA on 16-19 March 2016:
- Jon Lindsay presented "Restrained by Design: The Political Economy of Cybersecurity"
- Jon Lindsay presented "The Consequences of Complexity: Cybersecurity and Cross Domain Deterrence"
- Jon Lindsay chaired the "Preventing Cyber Attacks" ISA panel
- Erik Gartzke was a discussant on the "Environment and Conflict” panel
- Erik Gartzke presented "A Logic of Commitment in International Relations” for the "Bargaining, Commitment, and Peace” Panel
- Erik Gartzke presented “Sleeping Giant or Paper Tiger?: Latent Potential, Current Capabilities and Conventional Interstate Conflict" for the "The Proliferation of Proliferation: New Perspectives on the Spread of Nuclear Weapons" Panel
- Erik Gartzke presented “Dissatisfied States" for the “Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory” panel
- Erik Gartzke presented “The Influence of Seapower on Politics: Domain and Platform Specific Attributes of Material Capabilities" for the "Finance, Terrorism, and Insurgency” panel
- Erik Gartzke was a chair and discussant on the "International Politics of Cyber Warfare” panel
Erik Gartzke visited the Monterey Institute for International Studies for the “Nukes in (Cyber)space: The Hazards of Cross-Domain Deterrence” Seminar on 2 March 2016.
- Erik Gartzke presented his joint paper on “Cyberwar in a Thermonuclear World"
Jon Lindsay participated as a panelist for the "Borderless Threats" Panel at the 10th Annual Munk Graduate Student Conference entitled "A World With(out) Borders."
Erik Gartzke attended the Kobe Sakura Meeting: The 6th International Conference for Collaborative Research in International Relations & Comparative Politics on 23-25 March 2016: http://www.kobe-u.ac.jp/documents/en/NEWS/event/law/2016_03_23_01-1.pdf
- Erik Gartzke Chaired Yoshiharu Kobayashi’s presentation on “Re-evaluating the Utility of Economic Sanctions: Lessons from the Ukrainian Crisis”
- Erik Gartzke presented “Drafting Disputes: Military Labor, Regime Type and Interstate Conflict”
- Erik presented, with Koji Kagotani, “Being There: U.S. Force Posture, Offshore Balancing and Alliance Reliability"
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke’s CDD theory paper “Deterrence across Domains” was accepted for the American Political Science Convention in September 2016.
The University of Maryland has completed the coding of 42 cases for the CDD project and 23 additional cases have been assigned to UMD coders. Of the 42 cases that have been coded, 22 have been reviewed.

February 2016

Jon Lindsay attended a cybersecurity conference in Canberra, Australia and took part in a Cyber-Spying interview with Australia’sThe World Today: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2016/s4407310.htm
Erik Gartzke’s “Debating the Democratic Peace in the International System” was accepted for publication by the International Studies Quarterly.
Erik Gartzke attended the University of Houston’s Political Economy of Risk Conference
- Erik Gartzke presented his preliminary paper on uncertainty and war entitled “Knowing Unknowns: Assessing the Effect of Uncertainty on Interstate Conflict.”
Michael Nacht of UCB submitted a draft of his Chapter “Cross Domain Deterrence: In American Foreign Policy” for the CDD edited volume.
Rex Douglass finalized the ontology for coding the ICB data and delivered it to the University of Maryland’s coding team.
The U of Maryland began the coding of new data on CDD, covering all ICB crises (1918-2015).
Erik Gartzke attended an NSRI review at the University of Texas.
- Erik Gartzke attended an after actions review on a 2015 NSRI workshop
- Erik Gartzke presented the CDD project and introduced the Minerva project collaborators at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to Frank Gavin the Chair in Nuclear Security Policy studies and Professor of Political Science at MIT.
Rex Douglass attended a Geo-spatial Conference at Duke for the basing project to gather relevant data on domains.
- Rex Douglass presented work on problems of geospatial modeling, particularly scale in-variance of relationships
- Rex Douglass met with several USAID employees to discuss modeling and development of conflict issues
- Rex Douglass met with a head of geospatial lab at Stanford, Jonathan Rodden, and discussed the potential of collaborating on military maps in the Stanford map library
GSR’s Andres Gannon and Clara Suong presented an updated version of their basing projects and solicited feedback during a UCSD lab meeting.

January 2016

Jon Lindsay’s article “The Real Cyberespionage Rule: Don’t Get Caught” was published in the Asia &The Pacific Policy Society: http://www.policyforum.net/the-real-cyberespionage-rule-dont-get-caught/
Jon Lindsay gave a talk at the U of Toronto to the Political Science Department on “Shifting the Fog of War: Information Technology and the Politics of Control.”
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay hosted a CDD workshop:
- Erik Gartzke presented “Deterrence Across Domains”
- Jon Lindsay presented “Propositions on CDD”
- Rex Douglass presented the CDD Coding Project
- David Quinn presented a progress report on Maryland's coding effort to date
- Clara Suong presented her work on the CDD Basing Project
- Rex Douglass presented "Two Warheads Passing in the Night: On modeling nuclear and conventional weapons proliferation"
- Jiakun J Zhang presented “The Commercial Peace in Space and Cyberspace”
- Jonathan Wilkenfeld gave a report on EUCOM Work, and discussed plans for experimental work based on CDD framework

December 2015

Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke briefed General Paul J. Selva. Vice Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, on the Minerva CDD project.
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke provided a briefing of the CDD Minerva project to members of the J5 staff.
Jon Lindsay’s article “Tipping the scales: the attribution problem and the feasibility of deterrence against cyberattack” was published in the Journal for Cybersecurity: http://m.cybersecurity.oxfordjournals.org/content/1/1/53.
Erik Gartzke, had an article published with Benjamin A.T. Graham, and Christopher J. Fariss in the Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2015/12/15/hey-china-this-is-why-democracies-beat-autocracies-in-a-fight-so-back-off-the-south-china-sea/
Jon Lindsay was invited to present at the Canadian Department of National Defence. These meetings were attended by a diverse cross section of professionals from the intelligence and planning staffs.
- Jon Lindsay gave a presentation on China and cybersecurity
- Jon Lindsay gave 2 presentations on cross domain deterrence
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke attended the “Cyberspace and Deterrence Academic and Inter-Agency Symposium” at the George Washington University, Elliott School of International Affairs. This conference was attended by members of the US CYBERCOM J5, who informed us that our paper “Weaving Tangled Webs” in Security Studies on cyber deception has been very helpful in their internal discussions.
- Erik Gartzke gave a presentation on CDD
- Jon Lindsay gave a presentation on “Tipping the Scales: The Attribution Problem and the Feasibility of Deterrence against Cyber Attack.”

November 2015

Advanced access to Jon Lindsay’s publication “Tipping the scales: the attribution problem and the feasibility of deterrence against cyberattack.” can be retrieved: https://academic.oup.com/cybersecurity/article/1/1/53/2354517
Jon Lindsay participated in an interview with NHK, Japan Broadcasting Corporation on China and Cyber Issues.
Captain John Zerr, Head of Policy and Doctrine at CYBERCOM attended a CDD lab meeting to discuss the Minerva project and presented “The Commander’s Vision and Guidance for US Cyber Command”
The UCSD coding scheme for the CDD Empirical Project is in the testing phase and the University of Maryland has begun trial coding on 35 events from the ICB data extension.
Erik Gartzke and Rex Douglass attended the Second Annual Cross Domain Deterrence Seminar hosted by LLNL.
Erik Gartzke and Rex Douglass participated in all day discussion and presentations of CDD related issues with government, academic, and military representatives.
Erik Gartzke and Rex Douglass met with Peter Barnes for project management review
Rex Douglass met with Peter Barnes, Michael Markey, and Benjamin Bahney to present initial empirical questions and results from the International Crisis Behavior expansion project
UCSD GSR Shannon Carcelli presented research on military intervention during a UCSD lab meeting.
Erik Gartzke presented the Minerva CDD project at Hebrew University
Erik Gartzke presented the Minerva CDD project at NYUAD

October 2015

Jon Lindsay visited LANL to present CDD material:
- Jon Lindsay presented "The feasibility of deterrence in cyberspace"
- Jon Lindsay participated in a "China and Cybersecurity" Roundtable
- Jon Lindsay participated in a "Cross-Domain Deterrence" Roundtable
- Jon Lindsay met with Joe Pilat (LANL investigator), to discuss CDD project.
Erik Gartzke co-hosted and presented an event for the San Diego Diplomacy Council, which had guests from East Asia and the Pacific to discuss the impact of technology on international security in areas such as cyber security, deterrence theory, and military power.
Rex Douglass presented the UCSD coding scheme for the ICB data during a Skype conference with UCSD and the University of Maryland collaborators.
Jon Lindsay presented work on Information Technology and Military Power during a UCSD Lab meeting.
Jon Lindsay and GSR Clara Suong presented an overview on the chapters of the CDD book during a UCSD lab meeting

September 2015

Jon Lindsay took part in an interview with CNN on China and cybersecurity http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/24/technology/china-hacking-military/
CDD Team held the 2015 Annual Workshop at UCSB Sedgewick Reserve and presented the project’s theoretical work and empirical coding scheme for the project’s collaborators from UCSD, LLNL, UCB.
- Erik Gartzke presented the CDD project overview
- Michael Nacht presented the origins of CDD
- UCSD GSR Shannon Carcelli presented her deterrence lit review
- Jon Lindsay presented on the status of two CDD book-length projects.
  - Jon Lindsay presented the outline of his CDD book project
  - Jon Lindsay discussed an early draft of the edited volume containing contributions from major figures in the study of deterrence, new technologies and critical actors
- Erik Gartzke presented CDD Naval Research “Within Domain Attributes: Naval Power”
- Rex Douglass presented the CDD Coding Scheme for the empirical portion of the Minerva Grant
- Ben Bahney, Jonathan Pearl, and Michael Markey presented CDD Air and Space Research “The Logic of Space Warfare and Cross Domain Deterrence”
- Camber Warren Presented CDD Research “Communication, Strategy, and the Deterrence of Non-State Actors”
- Tristan Volpe presented CDD Research “Threatening Proliferation: The Goldilocks Principle of Compellence with Nuclear Technology”
Erik Gartzke and Rex Douglass took part of a panel on nuclear proliferation on 2-6 September 2015 at the San Francisco APSA conference.
Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke attended the Annual Minerva Program Review in Washington D.C. on 9-10 September 2015.
- Jon Lindsay presented work in progress based on the CDD project on a panel on “gray-zone threats.”
Erik Gartzke presented CDD Material to the Executive Secretary for the Defense Science Board Task Force on Deterring, Preventing, and Responding to the Threat or Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction on 9 September 2015.
Erik Gartzke presented “Deterring Complex Threats: The Effects, Asymmetry, Interdependence, and Multi-polarity on International Strategy” for a DHS/START/MINERVA and SMA Technical Lecture Series via Teleconference on 15 September 2015.
Erik Gartzke met with Dr. Robert Griffin, Deputy Under Secretary, Science and Technology Directorate, Department of Homeland Security, and discussed the CDD project, cyber security, and the “dark web”.

August 2015

Jon Lindsay’s article entitled “The Impact of China on Cybersecurity: Fiction and Friction” was cited in a CRS report (p 4). http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/R44111.pdf
Michael Nacht ‘s work appeared in an op ed as the cover story of the Insight Section of Sunday's 16 August 2015 SF Chronicle on the threats posed by new technologies. The work is based on on-going work at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/article/When-cutting-edge-technologies-are-turned-against-6445122.php?psid=emftb
Jon Lindsay guest lectured on China and Security for a “Cyber Policy and Strategy” course for the Naval Post Graduate School’s National Security Affairs Department on 25 August 2015.
Rex Douglass presented the demonstration of a new interface for human coding of ICB sentences during a UCSD lab meeting. This new version demonstrates branching logic that asks the coder only for more information when relevant.

July 2015

CDD Team held a conference at Duke University and presented the project’s theoretical work and ICB coding scheme to collaborators from the University of Maryland, State University of New York, Albany and Duke University.
- Jon Lindsay presented the CDD project overview
- Erik Gartzke presented the CDD Naval Research
- Rex Douglass presented the CDD Coding Scheme for the empirical portion of the Minerva Grant
Erik Gartzke attended the 2015 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium in Omaha, Nebraska.
- Keynote speakers included: ADM Haney, Commander of STRATCOM, Robert Work, Deputy Secretary of Defense, RADM Beverstock, Assistant Chief of UK Defense Staff for WMD, Brad Roberts, and William J. Perry Fellow in International Security
- Erik met with Robert Vince, the Director of the National Security Office at LLNL. Robert outlined a number of opportunities for the CDD project, including inviting the CDD research team to participate in a conference to be held in Livermore, CA in November 2015
- Erik met with Robert Hinson, Executive Director of the National Strategic Research Institute at the University of Nebraska.
Jon Lindsay’s publication “The Impact of China on Cybersecurity: Fiction and Friction.” Was discussed and received a positive review: https://networks.h-net.org/node/28443/discussions/75065/h-diplo-article-review-541-%E2%80%9C-impact-china-cybersecurity-fiction-and
Three alumni (former GSR’s) of the project started tenure track jobs:
- Rupal Mehta (U. Nebraska Lincoln/STRATCOM)
- Jeff Kaplow (William and Mary)
- Blake McMahon (Air University)

June 2015

Michael Nacht (UCB) presented the outlining of the working progress of the their draft chapter for the CDD project at the University and Industry Technical Interchange (UITI) Meeting in Ann Arbor, MI.
Graduate Student Researcher Mingda Qiu presented his literature review on China’s Science of Military Strategy during a UCSD Lab Meeting.

May 2015

Jon Lindsay published a deterrence article on the North Korean hack of Sony: https://www.eastwestcenter.org/publications/north-korea-and-the-sony-hack-exporting-instability-through-cyberspace
Jon Lindsay published Exaggerating the Chinese Cyber Threat:http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/25321/exaggerating_the_chinese_cyber_threat.html
Erik Gartzke was a Panel Member for book conference on “Democracy, Economic Interdependence, and War” (Dale Copeland, Princeton University Press).
Erik Gartzke co-organized the “Empirical Implications of Bargaining Theory Conference” at Princeton University, in which his co-authors presented two papers “Uncertainty and War” and “War is in the Variance-Covariance Matrix.”
Jon Lindsay presented the CDD research activity at the UCSD Strategic Studies Summit.
Erik Gartzke presented at the UCSD Strategic Studies Summit and introduced the CDD project to potential GSR recruits.
Graduate Student Researcher Shannon Carcelli presented her literature review on Deterrence at UCSD Lab Meeting.
Paul Spitsen presented his literature review on Sea Power at a UCSD Lab Meeting.
Clara Suong presented her literature review on Basing Strategy and Power Projection at UCSD Lab Meeting.
Rex Douglass presented a draft chapter for the Economic Aspects of Genocides, Mass Atrocities, and Their Prevention (Oxford University Press), ed. Chuck Anderton and Jurgen Brauer at UCSD Lab Meeting.
Michael Nacht, Patricia Schuster, Eva Uribe created a poster outlining the working progress of the UCB’s draft chapter for the CDD project.

April 2015

Publication: Lindsay, Jon R., Tai Ming Cheung, and Derek S. Reveron. “Will China and America Clash in Cyberspace?” The National Interest, 12 April 2015. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-china-america-clash-cyberspace-12607.
Article by Stephan Haggard and Jon Lindsay on the North Korean Sony Hack accepted for publication in peer-reviewed paper series Asia Pacific Issues.
Jon Lindsay gave a presentation on “The Cyber Domain” at the 18th MIT Senior Congressional and Executive Office Branch Seminar, Cambridge, Mass., 8-10 April 2015
Erik Gartzke presented a draft of his paper “The Influence of Seapower upon Politics” at our internal lab meeting. This analysis uses a combination of datasets to examine how the distinctive properties of the naval domain shape conflict behavior. This initial findings provide strong support for our founding assumption in CDD that different domains have different strategic characteristics.
Jon Lindsay presented a draft paper “The Attribution Problem and the Stability of Deterrence” at our internal lab meeting. The attribution problem is critical in cyber but also space and intelligence operations. This paper uses a simple model to argue that attribution can be accommodated in the traditional bargaining model of war, but different assumptions about it lead to different expectations about the stability of deterrence.
Erik Gartzke attended the 21-26 April PRIO Oslo “Forecasting Conflict” Conference, where he discussed the uncertainty modeling dimension of the CDD project.

March 2015

Erik Gartzke presented a paper “The Influence of Seapower on Politics” at the 23-26 March Naval War College “Power Projection” Conference

February 2015

Presentation by Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay to ADM Michael Rogers, DIRNSA and CDR US CYBERCOM at UCSD on “Cyber Deterrence” on 5 February.
Publication (lead article in a leading security journal): Jon R. Lindsay, “The Impact of China on Cybersecurity: Fiction and Friction,” International Security 39(3): 7-47, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/ISEC_a_00189
Papers presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, 18-21 Feb, New Orleans
- Jeff Kaplow and Erik Gartzke, “Testing the Role of Uncertainty in Conflict”
- Jeff Kaplow and Erik Gartzke, “The Determinants of Uncertainty in International Relations”
- Jon Lindsay and Jiakun Jack Zhang, “Information Infrastructure: Cyberspace, Outer Space, and the US-China Security Relationship”
- Jon Lindsay, “Anarchy and the Demand for Control”
Jon Lindsay gave a presentation to the Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 23 February, Ottawa, Canada: “How New and How Dangerous are the Cyber Threats We Face?”

January 2015

Bradley Barnes, from the National Air and Space Intelligence Center, visited our research team at UCSD to provide training and discussion, “An Introduction to Counterspace.”

December 2014

Jon Lindsay presented “Cybersecurity and International Relations: Evaluating the Threat from China” at Georgetown University on 1 December.

November 2014

CDD research team hosted a conference, attended by 40 of the leading security studies scholars, on 6-7 November 2014 in La Jolla, CA. Major intellectual outputs from the conference are:
- While traditional deterrence theory focuses on the ends of deterrence, CDD focuses on the means, options, combinations, and tradeoffs in deterrence.
- Definitions of domains and the different ways to define domains remained a point of contention among conference participants and an urgent task for the CDD team to tackle.
- Many participants suggested we should define domains more systematically and ponder on characteristics of the threats/domains.
- Definitions of domains remain unclear and debatable but there is no advantage in distancing or choosing from one type of categorization over others.
- Latent capabilities may be able to deter before weaponization by CDD but the indicators are not very visible and ambiguous. However, cross domain threats may increase instability
- Some basic questions about CDD we need to answer include: who is being deterred; what the goal of CDD; what the threat is and whether it is credible; when the threat must be executed; how the delay impacts credibility; who executes the threat; and what the target of the threat is
- First, we need to determine what the trigger, that is, standards of behavior, are. Some things are acceptable whereas others are not and the standard needs to be agreed on. Second, we need to see what responses are appropriate in terms of their magnitude, length of response, and proportionality. Third, we need to see which domains are linked
There are a number of challenges for space deterrence, and the dynamics of space deterrence are poorly understood in the literature. Space deterrence is fragile, and if it fails, it could fail before traditional deterrence fails
CDD involves the development and possible employment of unlike capabilities. We can collect data on a single domain, while looking for cross-domain influences.
Another option is to collect data on multiple domains
- Measurement panel highlighted the feasibility of measuring CDD
- Panels on historical and regional applications discussed preliminary CDD concepts
Jon Lindsay presented “Cybersecurity and International Relations: Evaluating the Threat from China” at the University of Toronto Munk School of Global Affairs on 10 November
Jon Lindsay presented at George Mason University School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs on 13 November
Jon Lindsay participated in the World Internet Conference in Wuzhen China on 19-21 November
Lindsay, Jon and Lucas Kello. “Correspondence: A Cyber Disagreement.” International Security Fall 2014, Vol. 39, No. 2: 181–192

October 2014

Jon Lindsay participated in Workshop on Nuclear Latency, Nonproliferation, and Disarmament, organized by Joe Pilat, at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC on 2 October.
Jack Zhang presented “Information Infrastructure: Space, Cyberspace, and U.S.-China Relations” at APSA La Jolla on 3 October.
Jon Lindsay presented “Information Infrastructure: Space, Cyberspace, and U.S.-China Relations” at George Washington University on 6 October.
Erik Gartzke participated in the Peace Science Society meetings in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 11-12 October. He had a number of discussions with researchers on deterrence, space data, and cyber.
Shannon Carcelli presented at 17 October lab meeting on games of deterrence. Discussion points included:
- 3rd and 4th waves of deterrence theory
- Perfect deterrence games and three-party deterrence games
- Grand strategy and deterrence
Erik Gartzke attended RAND Deterrence conference in Washington, DC 24 October.

September 2014

Jon Lindsay and Erik Gartzke participated in a UCSD campus-led visit to the National Security Agency and met with NSA Director and his staff 9 September.
Erik Gartzke gave a talk at the University of Exeter (UK) on “Cyber Deception” and met with members of the faculty of the Department of Security Studies 19 September.
Erik Gartzke gave a talk at the University of St. Gallen (Switzerland) on “Trust in Tripwires: A Logic of Extended Deterrence” 24 September.
Erik Gartzke attended a conference at Duke University, held by the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) on bargaining and energy security, where he discussed ideas about the role of deterrence in the energy domain 29-30 September.

August 2014

Jon Lindsay lectured at a short-course on the Minerva grant held by the Minerva Initiative at the American Political Science Association (APSA) annual meeting in Washington, DC 27 August 2014.
Jon Lindsay met with the undersecretary of the Army, Brad Carson, to discuss deterrence theory.
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay held a panel on cross-domain deterrence, with a focus on China, space, and cyber at the APSA annual meeting on 30 August 2014.
- Discussants offered significant feedback and aided Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay to further refine various aspects of theories on cross-domain deterrence:
  - Means: further insights about the way that capabilities influence deterrence
  - Alternatives: differentiating CDD from escalation and weapons acquisition
  - Impact: considering the stakes that govern political competition
Jon Lindsay’s “Cybersecurity and International Relations: Evaluating the Threat from China” accepted for publication in the Winter 2014/2015 edition of International Security.
Clara Suong presented an early version of a proposed edited volume on CDD to presses.
- Georgetown University Press made a second contact expressing interest in the book.
Jon Lindsay and Jack Zhang presented on CDD in Chinese technology and military programming at internal lab meetings on 8 and 14 August.

July 2014

Erik Gartzke presented “No Humans Were Harmed in the Making of his War: The Nature and Consequences of ‘Costless’ Combat” and “Strategy in an Era of Complexity: An Outline of the Cross-Domain Deterrence” on 7 July at the Centre of Excellence for National Security at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Research team held annual workshop in La Jolla, CA on 16 July with prominent security studies scholars and CDD research partners. The team advanced towards a greater mutual understanding of cross-domain deterrence, and refined theories. Major discussion points include:
- Developing a bargaining idiom and defining success in CDD differently than in classical deterrence. CDD is more about playing the game well.
- Deterrence itself is about ends and about changing behaviors, but the focus of CDD research is on means and the way things are conducted. This research attempts to address the question of when changing the means matters.
- Asymmetric vulnerability: if there is asymmetric vulnerability, then CDD is part of the bargaining for strategic equilibrium.
- One hypothesis about complexity is that it increases the probability of escalation and it also magnifies the threat of something being left to chance. The counter hypothesis is that complexity decreases probability of escalation precisely because it magnifies the threat of something being left to chance.
  - Alternatively, we can see this as a continuum of intensity, where there are few moves with clear—and clearly bad—consequences as compared with many moves with ambiguous consequences. This points to the need to tease out causal logic of when complexity increases or decreases risk
Jon Lindsay submitted a revision of “Cybersecurity and International Relations: Evaluating the Threat from China” to International Security.

June 2014

Gartzke, Erik. “An Apology for Numbers in the Study of National Security...if an apology is really necessary,” H-Diplo/ISSF, No. 2 (2014): 77-90. URL: http://issforum.org/ISSF/PDF/ISSF-Forum-2.pdf
Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay, “Weaving Tangled Webs: Offense, Defense, and Deception in Cyberspace,” accepted for publication Security Studies

May 2014

Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay traveled to DC, 5-7 May to meet with policymakers, including representatives from USIP, DASD for Nuclear and Missile Defense Policy, OSD Strategy, CYBERCOM, the Rand Corporation, the Cato Institute, and various academic institutions. Meetings served to refine conceptual framework and generate interest in research, and were successful.
Erik Gartzke attended the "Historical Analysis for Defense and Security Symposium" (HADSS) workshop organized by the UK Ministry of Defense Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL), 21-22 May where he presented a paper titled, "No Humans Were Harmed in the Making of this War: On the Nature and Consequences of 'Costless' Combat."

March 2014

Erik Gartzke and Jon Lindsay attended and presented at the International Studies Association conference in Toronto, 24-28 March. Contributions include:
- Gartzke, Erik and Lindsay, Jon. “Cross-Domain Deterrence: Strategy in an Era of Technological Complexity.” Presented at “Technology and the Changing Face of War” panel
- “Renewing U.S. National Security in an Era of Constraints,” panel chaired by Jon Lindsay
- “Technology and the Changing Face of War,” panel chaired by Jon Lindsay

January 2014

Accepted for publication in International Security: Jon Lindsay, “That’s Not What the Cyber Revolution Means: Commentary on Kello.”
Gartzke, Erik. "Making Sense of Cyberwar." Policy Brief, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School, January 2014. URL: http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/23796/making_sense_of_cyberwar.html

December 2013

Gartzke, Erik. "Fear and War in Cyberspace." Lawfare: Hard National Security Choices, 1 December 2013. URL: http://www.lawfareblog.com/2013/12/foreign-policy-essay-erik-gartzke-on-fear-and-war-in- cyberspace/